EU Referendum


Afghanistan: calling time on the pretence


19/04/2012



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While the media and body politic so determinedly immerse themselves in lightweight fluff, the real world goes on, where decisions taken mean life or death. The Western political way, though, is to ignore the hard decisions, and focus on the populist issues, in the hope of gaining headlines and obscuring the lack of activity elsewhere.


And no more is this the case than in Afghanistan which, apart from the occasional flare-up, has dropped so far down the news agenda as to be almost invisible.

But, calling time on the Western pretence that Afghan security forces are anywhere near being able to take charge are the Russians, in the form of foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.

Lavrov has sharply criticised Nato's plan to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2014, saying that, "As long as Afghanistan is not able to ensure by itself the security in the country, the artificial timelines of withdrawal are not correct and they should not be set".

This might be taken with a pinch of salt, given that it was the Russian withdrawal which was in part responsible for the present mess, but it is nevertheless fair to say that Russian concerns are legitimate. It regards the military effort in Afghanistan as crucial for its own security, including helping to prevent instability from spreading into ex-Soviet Central Asia.

And, to be fair, Russia is stepping up its assistance to Nato, providing air corridors and railway routes for carrying supplies to and from the country, making good the loss of routes after Pakistan blocked supplies from crossing its territory in November.

Lavrov and Nato ministers are currently discussing a plan to give the alliance a new logistics facility in Ulyanovsk, on Russian territory, enabling the alliance transfer military cargo to and from Afghanistan. This is a considerable step forward as, hitherto, Russia has refused to allow the transit of overtly military equipment such as weapons and ammunition.

One can see, however, the Russian entreaties being ignored. Western governments – the British and US in the lead – rest on the fiction that the situation is improving in Afghanistan, and that the country will have stable and effective security forces in time for a major Nato pull-out in 2014.

In UK terms, that gives David Cameron time for his victory parade and mutual congratulations and the opportunity then to "park" Afghanistan before it becomes an election issue. Russian worries are well down the list, and will remain so. Short-term electoral consideration are far more important.

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