03/07/2012
Over the weekend, I was feeling very exposed â running a narrative which was completely at odds with the legacy media. However, gradually, the message is getting through, with
even the BBC now picking up the vibes.
There is no doubt that there was a major spat between Monti and Merkel, but the jury is still open as to whether it was theatre, pre-planned to give Monti something to take home. Certainly, there is no doubt that the effect of the "deal" was to bring Merkel's controls closer to fruition â leaving the German chancellor the "victor" if you prefer to see it in these terms.
The rest of the picture is murky, but it appears that the blockage on discussing the "master plan" came not from seventeen eurozone members but from the other ten - including the UK - members who wanted the focus to be kept on on short-term measures.
Despite all this, it seems, Merkel is still determined to have her treaty, believing it to be essential to save the euro. Currently, it looks as if she might have her way. The plan is to have an IGC up and running in December, one year after Cameron's famous "veto", with a new treaty on fiscal and political union taking between 18 months and two years to complete.
This brings us to mid-2014 or early 2015, putting treaty ratification right into the critical election period for Cameron, and dumping "Europe" right at the centre of the campaign. Cameron is presented with the ultimate nightmare â an election dominated by "Europe".
At this stage, it would be virtually impossible for the government to deny the British people a referendum, but also impossible for Cameron to recommend a "no" vote, for fear of wrecking the euro. He will be between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Over the last few days, this nightmare vision has driven Cameron's frenetic moves on the referendum issue, and explains the incoherence. The man has lost control of events but is desperately trying to appear as if he has the initiative. At last, after all these years, the sins of the past are catching up with our élites.
This is going to be worth watching.
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