EU Referendum


Eurocrash: how times change


18/08/2012



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Looking back to see exactly where this current crisis came from, it seems rather to have sneaked up on us. For instance, on the 10th anniversary of the euro, 1 January 2009, we got this delight (above) from the Independent.

Leaders of British small businesses, we were told, believed "the euro has been a success by a margin of four to one". This was according to a poll carried out by YouGov, which also found that "a clear majority believed the currency had a long-term future and that Britain should keep open the option of membership".

Although Labour and the Tories remained opposed to ditching the pound, the paper went on to tell us, the economic crisis had revived debate over whether it would ultimately be in Britain's interest to join the eurozone, which this day had acquired its 16th member in Slovakia.

But, by the end of the month, the Greek crisis was fully upon us, with a report that Trichet – then still ECB president - had been forced into repeated assurances that the eurozone was in no danger of falling apart, "despite growing stress in the Greek, Italian, Irish, Spanish and Austrian bond markets".

Amongst other things, this tells you a great deal about the fragility of opinion polls commissioned by partisan groups. This particular example was conducted for Business for New Europe.

It found 56 percent of "business leaders" believed the euro had succeeded since its launch, compared with 14 percent who thought it had failed. A total of 61 percent believed it was a sustainable currency in the long term, while 18 percent disagreed.

I guess you would not get the same result today.