EU Referendum


Syria: Cameron isolated


29/08/2013



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It is now evident that Mr Cameron will not get the support of Parliament today for military intervention in Syria. And, as support fades, Mr Cameron has conceded that there should be two votes.

This is attributed in part to Ed Miliband's demand that UN weapons inspectors be given time to gather evidence and that the Government provide compelling evidence that the Assad regime was responsible for a chemical attack in Damascus. Cameron was said to be "infuriated" but nevertheless agreed to delay the decision.

The vote tonight will be on a "hastily prepared motion" which still supports military action "in principle". British participation in a strike will then need a second vote, and that will not be called until "every effort" has been made to secure a UN resolution.

But not only has Labour been extremely lukewarm about the adventure, more than a few Conservatives are a little miffed at the lack of consultation from their Leader. Despite his avowed PR skills (/irony), it would appear that Mr Cameron has been taking his own side for granted, assuming that they will naturally fall into line.

Publicly, so far, the Party is hanging together, there is a growing sense of resentment. Out in their constituencies for the summer break, MPs are closer to the public than they are normally, and they are getting it full-frontal. They are finding that there is simply no popular support for the proposed intervention.

Something of that comes through in an online poll which has a mere 14 percent of voters supporting immediate action. Nearly fifty percent (48.12) oppose any action on any grounds. Then, a YouGov poll has 50 percent opposing missile strikes, with only 25 percent supportive – a 2:1 majority against.

High levels of opposition are also being seen in the USA, with a Reuters-Ipsos poll recording 60 percent opposed and only nine percent in favour.

Rarely can I recall such unequivocal opposition to Government intentions, indicating how out of tune Mr Cameron is with the country. Being so exposed is a dangerous position for a prime minister, especially as he has been so cavalier in canvassing support.

Some Tory wonks, however, believe this is of little importance, positing that memories will have faded by 2015. But memories of such things are long. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya are being widely quoted and the effect of strong public sentiment, if it is ignored, is not one that can be dismissed.

Having never commanded the wholehearted support of the British people, Mr Cameron is now going way too far out on a limb. The metaphorical saws are being sharpened and our prime minister may shortly find that the only way out of this mess is down.

COMMENT: SYRIA THREAD