14/10/2013
It is interesting to note that the
Mail on Sunday confirms that which we've known for some time: an EU referendum in the near future (i.e., before the general election) would most likely deliver an insufficient margin to overcome the
status quo effect.
Basically, in this poll we get a mere 46 percent in favour of leaving and 38 percent wanting to remain in the EU, a margin of only eight points. Plucking just one comparator out of thin air, we look at Angus Reid in
June 2010, we see 48 percent wanting out, with 27 percent prepared to vote to stay in.
Then, in the current poll, when the renegotiation question is asked, the majority opt for staying in: 47 percent as against 30 percent who want to leave. This is more or less the three-to-two majority that
Kellner has reported.
Crucially, 55 percent want a referendum before the next election, compared with 31 percent after, while only 33 percent trust Mr Cameron to deliver a 2017 referendum, against 54 percent who don't trust him. There is thus a close numerical relationship between those who don't trust Mr Cameron and those who want an early referendum.
Despite the enthusiasm for the early referendum (and the probability that we would lose it), the main findings simply
reinforce the previously observed stability in EU sentiment. Clearly, there are no great movements in opinion and there seems little prospect of any change.
Oddly enough though, should the "in-out" figures be repeated, only in response to a "yes-no" treaty referendum â with the majority supporting the "no" vote â we could be confident of a victory. The
status quo effect would be working in our favour.
In fact, we could see a repetition of the margins we saw when the EU constitution was on the cards. Populus gave us 57 percent against the constitution
in May 2003, with 33 percent supporting it.
YouGov in June 2004 was giving us 49 percent in opposition, with 23 percent approving. ICM had 57 percent against and 28 percent for. Even three years later, in June 2007,
YouGov had 43 percent against a treaty and only 21 percent for.
That comparison is also helpful in other ways, indicating that that more people engage with the issue when â as was the case in 2004 â a referendum appeared to be a real possibility. That suggests that the current stability in the polls reflects the belief that an immediate referendum is unlikely.
Fortunately, that belief is probably correct and we are unlikely to see a referendum on the near future. When a treaty convention is launched, progressively we may see "yes-no" treaty polls offered, and we will be able to see where the land lies. But, for the time being, we need a prime minister to stick to his guns and refuse a referendum this side of an election. Otherwise, we lose.
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