16/12/2013
Making the weather all yesterday was the
Sunday Times (paywall) with its "revelations" on the Government's Balance of Competences study. This looked specifically at freedom of movement and was trailed by
The Times earlier in the week, then to be picked up by the likes of the
Independent, after it had been held back for being "too positive" about EU migration.
The headline issue here is that the government has raised the prospect of a 75,000 cap on annual EU immigration "as part of a radical change in Britain's relationship with Europe". This apparently means net migration from EU countries could be slashed by 30,000 from the current 106,000 a year.
Coming via Teresa May's Home Office, the proposal suggests that professionals and high-skilled migrants from countries such as Germany, Holland or Austria could move here only if they had a job offer. There would be a "national preference" for jobs and lower-skilled workers would be allowed into Britain only if they had jobs on an approved national shortage job list.
The online
Guardian takes it from there, telling us that the suggested policy has already been criticised by David Davis, the former shadow home secretary, who complains that the government will not be able to stem an expected increase in immigration in January from Bulgaria and Romania.
This comes to us via the BBC's The Andrew Marr Show. "On 1 January the accession period comes to an end for Bulgaria and Romania and they'll then have free movement of people, the same rights of movement as anybody else in Europe. There are huge fears that there will be thousands, tens of thousands, if you believe UKIP hundreds of thousands, of people coming into Britain", Davis says.
"So it needs to be dealt with straight away. It needs to be dealt with by saying to the EU: 'We're sorry, this can't work. Let's just rethink this, put it off for a couple of years and rethink it'", he adds.
By the
Guardian we are told that this reflects, "increasing tensions" within the Conservative party over how to deal with fear from the electorate over immigration which has been fanned by sections of the media â to say nothing of UKIP. Rows between Tories over Europe, says the paper, are expected to escalate in the new year as MEPs, MPs and councillors seek ways of stopping the rise of the UKIP, "which has gained popularity because of its hardline stance on EU immigration".
All of this is rollicking stuff, but it seems from reading the
Mail that the substance is less than the hype. The so-called "cap" is just one of Mr Cameron's aspirations for his mythical renegotiation if he is elected in the 2015 general election - one of a series of inspired "leaks" aimed at giving the impression of activity. However, the 75,000 "cap" is fifty percent above the level on offer from UKIP, keeping the Tories behind in the game.
Nevertheless, it ups the ante from Friday's effort in the
Telegraph which had Cameron saying that "unrestricted immigration should only be allowed from countries that have a similar level of wealth to the UK". Meanwhile László Andor keeps up the act as the
stage Commissioner, providing the "bad cop" counterpoint to Cameron's "good cop" routine.
None of this is real though. There is nothing formally being put to the EU and there is no suggestion that the government is planning to confront Brussels. The headlines are for show. Mr Cameron wants to present the image of being tough on immigration â without actually having to do anything.
So far, in terms of media coverage, it is working. The big test, though, is whether it plays out in the polls. The are certainly a few gullible Tories who will go for it, and core UKIP will remain unconvinced. That leaves the "swamp" - one awaits with interest to see how they are going to react.
