28/03/2014
With a weak-sounding Obama
telling the Russians to move their troops back from the Ukrainian border, and to start negotiating with the Ukraine government, the
Kiev Post seems convinced that there will be war.
Russia, is says in its front-page story today, "is mobilising for war and may be poised for a springtime invasion of Ukraine's mainland, after stealing Crimea in less than three weeks". It claims that tens of thousands of Russian troops and military hardware, including artillery, tanks, warplanes and helicopters are amassing and carrying out war games on all sides of Ukraine.
The paper goes on to claim High concentrations have been spotted in Russia's Klimovo in the north and Russia's Belgorod in the northeast, in Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region in the southwest, as well as sizable groups carrying out military exercises in Belarus in the north.
To bolster their case for a "spring invasion", the paper cites Yevhen Marchuk, a retired Ukrainian general and former defense minister. He tells of how "the crisis is intensifying" and that Russia has now moved to the "second phase" of its plan "to eliminate" Ukraine as a nation. Talking to journalists at the Ukrainian Crisis Media Centre, he declares, "There are many signs of an imminent attack ⦠Now it is in fact war time".
This is on the back of estimates of Russian troops massed on the border, varying from the US suggesting 30,000 to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council's calculations of 100,000 soldiers ready to strike.
Dmitry Tymchuk, head of the Centre for Military and Political Research in Kyiv states that, in addition, there are 700 tanks and armoured personnel carriers staging near the eastern border, plus 240 warplanes and helicopters, 150 artillery systems of various calibres, and 100 multiple rocket launcher systems.
However further detail, the paper's own op-ed written by
Mark Galeotti stresses that, the more time passes, the less likely an attack becomes, because of the shifting political situation and also â as Kiev moves forces east and mobilises reserves and volunteers â so does the military calculus.
In an interview aired by
CBS News, however, the
Kiev Post view seems to get some support from President Obama. "You've seen a range of troops massing along that border under the guise of military exercises", he says, "but these are not what Russia would normally be doing. It may simply be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that they've got additional plans.
The President then adds: "And, in either case, what we need right now to resolve and de-escalate the situation would be for Russia to move back those troops and to begin negotiations directly with the Ukrainian government as well as the international community".
On the other hand, even if some
US sites buy the rhetoric, if we go to
Voice of Russia, we get Moscow dismissing accusations about the existence of a Russian military threat to Ukraine.
Says Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Alexander Lukashevich, there is "Nothing of the kind. The four international inspections conducted in the European part of Russia in March this year under the Vienna Document 2011 on confidence-building measures, involving representatives from Latvia, Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Estonia, Belgium, France and Ukraine failed to detect any 'aggressive preparations' and any military activity other than those that were declared earlier".
While one can easily dismiss Russian propaganda (as well as Ukrainian and US input), this highlights what tends to be forgotten. Russian military exercises are subject to international inspection (to say nothing of US intelligence satellite surveillance).
Furthermore, while we saw earlier a spike in
YouTube traffic, showing Russian military movements, there is very little new being posted. And while the Russians might well be imposing a security blanket, there are simply too many eyes (and cameras) for large-scale troop movements to remain unreported. The US claims of troop presence have
largely stabilised on a figure of 40,000 â which is quite insufficient to mount a full-blown contested invasion.
For the time being, therefore, one can assume that the Ukrainian invasion rhetoric is just that, and there is no credible threat in the short-term of a Russian military invasion. Obama's half-hearted support now even comes
with a caveat, In his final news conference of his European trip, in his reference to Ukraine, he says it's, " ⦠important for us not to promise and then not to be able to deliver".
Meanwhile, the
Farage broadside gains momentum while the
Bruges Group offers its own comment about the EU's "blunder". As the Ukraine ramps up the war-like rhetoric, therefore, the debate is widening out and some of the neglected issues are being aired.
