29/03/2014
In a typically lightweight report, a
Telegraph reporter goes on a 200-mile road trip in the border area to assess the threat of a Russian invasion, confidently predicted as imminent by
The Times and
Sunday Times, plus sundry other newspapers.
Reports Roland Oliphant, "the Russian invasion force - if it is here - is very well camouflaged". He adds: "As the fog lifted, murky shapes were revealed as trees, houses and old Lada cars. No tanks emerged from the gloom, no suspicious flights of helicopters passed overhead, and no green painted trucks rumbled down the roads".
Thus, on his 200-mile trip along the border region, the only Russian armour he sees "was of a much older vintage, and stood on plinths in town squares".
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, though. Oliphant remarks that "the moment for action may not yet have arrived", telling us that the landscape "consists of vast fields, as flat as a billiard table, intersected by small rivers and served by poor roads". "It is almost perfect tank country", he adds, "as local history testifies. But the rich earth may still be too boggy - and the rivers too high - to provide a decent surface for Russiaâs heavy T-90 tanks".
One needs to be a little pedantic here. As well as T-90s, I am also seeing pics of
T-72 variants. These are the one to watch. The latest tank in the Russian inventory is in fact the T-72B3, which was being issued to the 20th Guards only in October 2013. So recent is the type that the full establishment of 150 tanks has yet to be delivered.
For intelligence purposes, small distinctions are quite important, as pictures of tanks,
per se, tell us very little. We need to see the élite Guards units that might be expected to lead an invasion. We also need to see spearhead equipment, such as the BMP-3s used in reconnaissance units, the
BMP-Ts used for breaching and route clearance, and support equipment such as the
Smerch MLRSThe latter are shown in a recently posted
YouTube but there is no indication of the date seen, or the location, although this is precisely the equipment one might expect to see if an invasion was planned. If this train was confirmed as heading towards Ukraine, it might be significant.
Elsewhere, we
see claims arguing that an invasion is imminent, relying on sightings
such as these, which were spotted at Somovo, 300km from the Ukrainian border, apparently heading in that direction.
These actually appear to be T-90s, as do
these, claimed to be with the 4th Guards (Kantemirovsky) division near the Ukrainian border (screen grab above). Therein lie a few problems. The Kantemirovsky division has been disbanded, to be reconstituted as a reinforced brigade, it is equipped with T-80s (below) rather than T-90s and the markings usually seen on Guards tanks are missing. Furthermore, they do not look battle-ready.
Another
video, which purports to show tanks on a train near Voronezh, 250km from the Ukraine border, in fact shows trucks and
MT-LB tracked utility vehicles (used variously as ambulances, APCs and command vehicles).
Such contradictions illustrate the perils of amateur sleuthing, but even they does not compare with Oliphant's problems. While units intended for a large-scale invasion might be visible while on the move, once in position they might be difficult to detect. Certainly, they are not going to oblige Mr Oliphant by lining up on the motorway for his inspection, bearing illuminated destination boards.
However, his is another jigsaw piece, to add to the many. And the balance of the evidence available still supports the idea that there is no invasion planned for the near future. Added to that, we have the strongest possible denials from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Moscow has no intention of sending its troops into eastern Ukraine, he says.
This brings us to what I feel is in the bidding for quote of the year, with the Russians being accused
of threatening several Eastern European and Central Asian states with retaliation if they voted in favour of a United Nations General Assembly resolution declaring invalid Crimea's referendum.
A spokesman for Russia's Mission to the UN denied the reports, saying: "We never threaten anyone. We just explain the situation".
Quite.
