06/04/2014
In a small way, I'm rather grateful to the
New Statesman for discussing the "Nigel Farage paradox", noting that, the more that UKIP's media profile, poll rating and party membership had grown over the last two years, the more that support for the party's core mission â that Britain should leave the EU â seems to have shrunk.
Without that, I might be joining the hoards of my "ex-readers" in questioning my own sanity, being the
only commentator to remark on what seems to be an alarming decline in the numbers prepared to vote for leaving the EU in a referendum.
But with three consecutive results in the bag, all showing that the "outers" are now in the minority, we now have an additional poll â another from
YouGov - this one putting the "inners" at 42 percent (unchanged), and the "outers" at 37 percent, up one since the last poll on 27-28 March.
This compares with the 35-32 split of the
Populus poll carried out at the same time, and goes to show that if there is any measurable effect on EU sentiment from Farage "victory" in last week's debate (and the one the week before), it is to motivate more people to stay in the European Union.
Such is the effect of the prevailing narrative, though, that when we see Peter Kellner write a scrappy piece for the
Sunday Times, he doesn't even mention is own poll, instead focusing on a European election poll which has UKIP climbing from 23 to 28 percent, rising from third to a strong second place.
There is no doubt in Kellner's mind: Farage's two debating victories over Nick Clegg, he says, have put his party on course to win next month's elections, although he notes that there is no corresponding rise in Westminster voting intentions.
On the other hand, we have a
Survation poll which also gives UKIP a hike in European election sentiment, but then it also gives the party a hike in the Westminster poll, up four points to 20 percent, compared with a drop of five points for the Conservatives, who slide to 29 percent.
Here, the catastrophic decline in the Conservative vote, in the Survation poll is put down to the Maria Miller, and the hostile public reaction to Cameron's failure to fire her after she had over-claimed on her expenses. And, from the review of the figures, it is quite clear that UKIP is performing its now-traditional function of being a repository for the protest vote.
It is not too much of a leap then to suppose that the European Parliament poll, attached to the Westminster poll, also reflected the Miller effect. So, while the Survation poll offers one possible explanation, Kellner gives it a completely different spin.
That brings us to the third European election poll reported today, from
ComRes. The unfiltered results also show the Conservatives dropping three points â to 18 percent â while Labour picks up the slack, gaining three to bring it to 25 percent, while UKIP remains unchanged on 18 percent, putting it is joint second, exactly where it was â with much the same percentage vote â in 2009.
Clearly though, with a spread of ten points between the UKIP figures, the polls are all over the place, unable to agree on where the party stands. There is probably far too much "noise" at the moment to say with any certainty what the position is.
The one thing that does emerge with some constancy, though, is that when it comes to the bigger picture â of national sentiment of the EU â we are losing the game.
In
March 2009 we had 55-41 percent in our favour and in September 2010, we had 47-33 percent in favour of leaving. Now, after five years of UKIP representation in the current EU parliament, with two years of exceptionally high-profile for the party and Farage's debating triumphs, "outer"sentiment is at a record low. As Churchill might have said, "some victory".
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