EU Referendum


UKIP: is the noose tightening?


14/04/2014



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While UKIP supporters have been celebrating what appear to them to be meaningful poll results, for the second time in a week, we see a story in the legacy media about the woman accused of being Nigel Farage's mistress – Annabelle Fuller.

Earlier stories on this affair have been shrugged off, and even used to reinforce Farage's "Jack-the-Lad" image, but the story last week had an edge to it. This will not be quite so easy to shrug off, as this week points to an altogether much nastier outcome.

The first of the current tranche appeared in the Sunday Times yesterday, and the story has since appeared in the Mail. And, while it is not our intention to rehearse the details here - to be honest, I'm not at all interested - there are a few salient points that emerge.

Firstly, although the initial activities which led to the current reports were relatively trivial, they have since escalated. We are now seeing criminal investigations undertaken by the Police, not so much into those activities as to the attempts to cover them up. There is now the possibility of conspiracy charges and prison sentences.

The relevance of this has not escaped UKIP-watchers, as this is by no means the only incident which is being re-investigated by the Police, where conspiracy charges are being considered. Furthermore, some are about as close to Farage as Miss Fuller is claimed to have got.

Up to press, the UKIP leader had enjoyed a charmed life, seemingly invulnerable to investigation, despite proliferating accusations of an increasingly serious nature. But, with a number of serious journalists designated to unearthing details of Mr Farage's "colourful" past, and the number of investigations in progress, led by senior Police officers, you get the sense that something out of the ordinary is set to happen.

That said, since the Farage Party (#cultofFarage) is now enjoying greater prominence, it was always going to be the case that its leader was going to come under more scrutiny. The thing we might observe, though, is that Farage didn't need to make it so easy for them. And once the dam bursts, we could well be seeing a torrent of adverse publicity. 

Other sources have suggested that this may break before the European elections, but I am not convinced that this timescale will hold. On the other hand, neither am I prepared to bet that the Teflon will stay intact. We're beginning to see some fairly substantial flakes, and once it starts wearing off, it rarely takes long before things start to stick.

And this alone suggests that the current poll ratings may not be quite as significant as some think, particularly in terms of predicting performance.

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