14/06/2014
Continuing down the road towards Mr Cameron's 2017 referendum, we now see Mr Bob Neill, Conservative MP for Bromley & Chislehurst, in the frame for another
EU Referendum Bill. He drew top Conservative Member in the Private Members' Bill ballot and then announced he would be introducing the Bill to legislate for an "in-out" vote by the end of 2017.
Born on 24 June 1952, this is an early birthday present for Neill, who says that the last time Britain was given a vote on our membership of the EU, he had just started work. Forty years on, just shy of the age of 62, this highly paid MP now, by his own admission, has a free bus pass. In this time, he says, our relationship with Europe (sic) has changed beyond recognition.
Then we get the money quote: "Only the Conservative Party are offering a credible plan of renegotiation and reform, and this Bill guarantees that the British people will have the final say".
We note that, despite the
Hannan prediction, "renegotiation" is still on the official cards. But, that apart, there is a total irony here. It was Bob Neill who in
the June 2006 by-election had to fend off a certain Nigel Farage who, with 2,347 votes, very nearly gave the seat to Lib-Dem challenger Ben Abbotts.
Had Abbotts won, we suspect it would not have been him leading the way to a referendum. Farage's failure paved the way for greater glories, and indirectly, to another try at a Referendum Bill. And perhaps here there is a sign. The main obstacle now to a referendum, if we want it, may be Mr Farage's party.
In that, of course, lie another raft of ironies. A pessimistic view would have it that we cannot win an "in-out" referendum â mostly because of the inadequacies of UKIP. That means that, at the general election, we need a UKIP success to block the very thing that is supposed to get us out of the EU, thus keeping us in the EU for the time being.
The electoral permutations now begin to look more than a little bizarre: vote Conservative for a referendum that we might lose, keeping us in the EU for the foreseeable future. Vote UKIP to block a referendum, keeping us in the EU for the foreseeable future. Or vote Labour to keep us in the EU for the foreseeable future.
Hackneyed cliché it might be, but sometimes you couldn't make it up. But does anyone have a scenario where we actually get to leave the EU?
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