EU Referendum


UK politics: Tories on the back foot


12/08/2014



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We haven't done much on UK politics for a while, but the latest Guardian/ICM poll is worth a quick look.It tells us that Labour has overturned a narrow Tory advantage to take a commanding seven point lead "after a bruising week for David Cameron in the wake of the resignation of Baroness Warsi over the Gaza crisis".

Labour has seen its support increase by five points over the last month to 38 percent, a level it has not seen since March. The Conservatives, on the other hands, have seen their support fall by three points to 31 percent – last recorded in June. This gives Labour a seven-point lead, compared with last month when the Tories had a one-point lead over Labour: 34-33 percent.

The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 12 percent, while UKIP sees a one-point increase in its support to 10 percent.

The poll was carried out between Friday and Sunday, but whether there was time for the Warsi factor to register is moot. I suspect that events take a little time to register on the electoral horizon, as people like to mull them over. People tend not to be as volatile as the polls seem to indicate. By way of a reference point, YouGov on Sunday put Labour on 37 percent, the Conservatives on 33 percent, UKIP on 12 percent and the Lib-Dems on eight percent.

In that context, the Guardian poll may be showing some of the aftermath of Mr Cameron's reshuffle, in which case the prime minister is in a little trouble. On the other hand, this may be another of those outliers, with the gap closing in the next poll.

On thing is for certain though. None of the polls show the Conservatives forging ahead, which makes this poll of some greater interest as is also looks at the Tory leadership stakes. With Mr Johnson potentially in the running, he is given pole position. Some 29 percent of respondents believe he should be the next party leader.

Theresa May, the current frontrunner, gets just 14 percent, George Osborne pulls in a mere six percent and Jeremy Hunt – on the same level as Michael Gove – crawls in with two percent. Owen Paterson is not mentioned.

Confusing the issue somewhat, the poll finds that Labour's seven-point lead would fall to three points if Mr Johnson led the Tories, with their support rising by three points to 34 percent. Labour see its support fall by one point to 37 percent. Even if Mr Cameron is unattractive as a leader, it is a tad concerning to think that people would be prepared to give Johnson a punt.

Interestingly, support for UKIP also falls with Johnson as Tory leader. The party loses two points to bring it to eight percent, suggesting that there might be people still confused by the London Mayor's claims to being a eurosceptic.

This notwithstanding – and with all the usual caveats – the overall poll cannot be brilliant news for Mr Cameron. After last month, when his party could conceivably be thought to be making some headway, this result sets him back again.

It is still too early to make predictions for the general election, but the pundits could be right in saying that Johnson throwing his hat into the ring is a sign that he doesn't believe the Tories can win the next election. If the tradition holds, Mr Cameron will resign if he fails to become prime minister, leaving the field open for leadership contenders.

Miliband as prime minister, and Mr Johnson as leader of the opposition, though, is more than anyone should be asked to bear. None of us deserve our politics to be degraded so much. One wonders whether there is an alternative reality one could join and why it is, in a nation of 60 million, we are unable to produce better leaders.

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