28/08/2014
Whatever doubts there might have been about direct Russian government support to the separatists in eastern Ukraine (and there were plenty), they are now rapidly evaporating with the latest military hardware sightings.
Pictured above is a tank reported on the outskirts of rebel-held Donetsk, which on first sight might be thought to be a T-90 â rather like
these spotted by the
Mail just over a week ago.
However, analysis furnished to
the BBC from the YouTube video (below â see 1:50) suggests it might be a T-72BM with the skirts removed, the very latest version of the T-72 which first appeared in
Chechnya in late 2011. You can get a better look at it
here.
The suggestion is that this is exclusive to the Russian Army, although
FAS says it was made available for export. Nevertheless, there is no record of the type having been supplied to other forces. Certainly, there is no indication that it was ever supplied to the Ukrainians.
Should this be Russian-supplied equipment, of recent origin, then it does most definitely represent a serious escalation â but very much in character. It has been evident for some time that Putin would not allow the separatists to be destroyed by the Ukrainian Army.
Such determination would, it seems, preclude a military settlement in the region. Whatever the Ukrainians field, it is clear that the Russians will match, thus engineering a perpetual stalemate â or perhaps not.
Reports
suggest that the Russians are infiltrating a major convoy of armoured vehicles, last reported about 30 miles south of Donetsk. With Ukrainian forces massing, we could even be shaping up for a decisive battle.
If this takes place, it will make a nonsense of a meeting
on Tuesday between President Putin and Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko in Minsk, aimed at resolving the conflict. Interestingly, the
Guardian report of the meeting shows a picture of what could be T-72BMs - but may actually be T-90s, captioned as Russian soldiers in the Rostov region, near the border with Ukraine (above). In this case, the tanks have skirts and a different (Russian) camouflage scheme.
One hopes that these military manoeuvres are just posturing, but the chances of a political settlement are looking increasingly slight. The hard men look to be taking over, as the Russian tanks roll in.
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