20/09/2014
A quick review of the papers and some of the commentary does suggest that the "no" vote caught some in the media by surprise, having believed there own propaganda that it was a close-run contest.
However, I don't think the result was ever in doubt. If there ever was a time when the "yes" campaign did draw ahead, it peaked too early and thus triggered an inevitable backlash, which brought the
status quo back into play.
Within the political classes â and especially the Conservative Party â there were also those who thought the "yes" side might prevail, in which event David Cameron might have been on the line, with his leadership threatened.
One scenario I heard was that Mr Cameron might have been fatally wounded by the referendum result, and then brought down in the wake of the victory by Mr Carswell, leaving the slate clean for a new leader to take the Party to victory in the General.
These are the sort of rumours which seem to entertain the denizens of the Westminster bubble but, in reality, the successful â and convincing "no" vote has strengthened Mr Cameron's hand. Then, the Carswell victory has already been discounted as an irrelevance, so the stage is set fair for Mr Cameron to take us through to the General which, on current form, he will probably lose.
The tradition fate of a failed Tory leader is, of course, that he very quickly becomes an ex-Tory leader, but even that may be in doubt. No one is particularly keen to take over the poison chalice of the Tory leadership, for a prolonged period of opposition.
Nor is there any serious head of steam behind Party moves to force through a constitution settlement in England. Few of the backbenchers have really thought through their stances, and they are all over the place â most illustrating that they had given the aftermath of the referendum any serious thought.
One view is that Mr Cameron will capitalise on the disarray and kick constitutional reform into the long grass. The Scots had their chance and they've blown it, and there is no mood to give the losers consolation prizes that put the rest of the UK at a disadvantage.
As for the English, they have yet to get their act together, and there is no mandate anyway for fundamental change. Soon enough, another crisis and yet another will displace the issue, and the pack will move on.
But, on
Newsnight last night, both Tam Dalyell and Owen Paterson put their fingers on it. As you moved further away from the Glasgow-Edinburgh corridor, support for independence fell away. Said Dalyell, the result showed that the people of Aberdeenshire wanted their government to be in Aberdeenshire.
This is
our view, and that's where
The Harrogate Agenda lies. We want real devolution, and that means giving power back to the people, not just to another bunch of politicians.
Demos is not good enough ... think
kratos.
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