EU politics: uniting the "no campaign"

30/12/2014

Nothing Barroso does is by accident, and if – as he did – spoke on the BBC's World at One yesterday, he did it for effect. The only question is: what effect was he aiming for?

His text for his "lecture" was that Britain was "no longer at the centre of the European Union" under the leadership of David Cameron - as it had been under Tony Blair. And this was because of "anti-EU sentiment within the Conservative party".

Barroso sees David Cameron as basically a very pragmatic leader – someone that certainly wants to defend the interests of his country". But while with Tony Blair, Britain "was really playing a very important role in the European Union – they were at the centre of decisions", today, "this is no longer the case, and I think this is a matter for reflection".

Whether anybody actually cares what Mr Barroso thinks any more – outside the BBC – is, of course, another "matter for reflection".

We even take with a pinch of salt the former European Commission president's "swipe" at Britain's status in the world, saying that Obama was now more likely to call the German chancellor than the UK prime minister if he wanted to get European countries on board for international action.

I suppose, though, that the "money quote" is Barroso telling us that Britain would be much more influential today if it had a more "positive attitude" towards the EU rather than constantly pursuing a "defensive agenda" of trying to get exceptions and special treatment.

For once, though, we get an entertaining comeback from a Conservative MP, Henry Smith, who accuses Barroso of "harking back to the days of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who rolled over to his EU demands time and time again".

"With the fastest-growing economy in Europe, Mr Barroso should perhaps look to the UK for advice and inspiration rather than lecturing us from a sedentary position", he adds.

One wonders, though, whether this was coordinated with a statement by an anonymous Cabinet Minister to the Independent newspaper, warning of "more than two years of civil war" if David Cameron's Conservatives win the general election. There is, we are told, "dismay" among ministers over Mr Cameron's decision to set a rigid 2017 deadline for staging a referendum.

Our retiring Cabinet Minister likens the situation to the civil war in Tory ranks 20 years ago over the EU during John Major's premiership, adding: "It would be a continual distraction from all our work on the economy and the progress we are making on it".

However, Tory MPs and ministers alike fear the divisions within the party – extending all the way to the Cabinet – over EU membership would be brutally exposed in the lengthy run-up to a referendum. The splits have dogged the party since the late 1980s when Margaret Thatcher was in office.

Prominent ministers who could support withdrawal from the EU – regardless of any deal to return powers from Brussels to London struck by Mr Cameron – include Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling. That could leave them in a different camp from their leader and the majority of their Cabinet colleagues.

A large tranche of backbench Tory MPs would also be certain to campaign for Britain to pull out. One told the Independent, "I find it pretty hard to envisage David Cameron achieving anything in Brussels that would persuade me to argue in favour of staying in".

Interestingly, Peter Oborne agrees that the Conservative Party will split over Europe. But he goes on to say that next year will be "massive" for Owen Paterson. Paterson is unfancied by bookmakers, says Oborne. "But he will emerge as leader of the Conservative ultras determined to take the party out of Europe".