02/05/2015
It was
in April that I expressed my "gut feeling" that the "Miliband effect" would create a last minute surge towards the Conservatives, with the two-party squeeze pushing Ukip out of the picture, leaving Cameron with a small but workable majority.
Certainly, despite the wild optimism of the pundits â the Matt Goodwins of this world - Ukip was never going to make the grade. Empty of substance, boasting a leader with no more depth than the classic
pub bore, it only needed
sufficient public exposure for the shine to wear off.
Now, snapping at the party's heels is
Dan Hodges, who remarks: "Just look at Nigel Farage. He is losing in Thanet. But on Tuesday he was in Hartlepool. Yesterday he was in Strasbourg. Today he was on LBC attacking the BBC coverage of the campaign".
This, says Hodges, "is not a man on the brink of electoral glory. This is a man who has basically given up, and is now embarking on a national farewell tour. It's clear that Ukip will poll below, (possibly well below), double figures next week".
With that, we are now confronting the very real possibility that Mr Cameron will lead a majority government, and that will bring us to the threshold of a referendum campaign, where we will be fighting against all the odds.
Sadly, though, Farage's vacuity â the same that has made him no more use as an MP than he has been as an MEP - has left a legacy of an entirely inadequate exit plan, the limitations of which are already beginning to be explored.
In the Europhile online magazine,
The Conversation, it is being picked apart by Trevor Salmon, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations at University of Aberdeen. On trade, he says, Ukip simply assumes that the UK will be able to negotiate a free trade agreement, make its own trade deals on its own terms, and retake its seat in the World Trade Organisation.
Getting right to the point, Salmon concedes that some of this may be possible but, he says, "it could take a long time, and be contingent on securing the agreement of all the other EU states â some of which may not be amenable". He adds:
We know from past experience that trade negotiations between EU states can take a long time. For example, it took years to negotiate the entry of Spain and Portugal to the European Economic Community. In 1974, Portugal's dictatorship ended â the same happened in Spain's in 1975. Both applied to join the EEC shortly after, but neither were acceded until 1986. This was not because the EEC was hostile, but because it had other issues in play, as well as niggles over special interests such as wine.
It is precisely issues such as these that we deal with in
Flexcit and if Farage had any sense at all, he would have realised that his scenario was never going to fly and devoted some energy to preparing something better.
Another thing he needed to do was address the Europhile meme that leaving the EU would be an economic disaster. Latest to try this on is
France's UK ambassador, Sylvie Bermann. A British exit, she says, would be a "lose-lose" situation for the rest of the EU as well as Britain itself.
As the Europhiles so often do, Bermann confuses participation in the Single Market with membership of the EU. Our response is simple: we can take part in the one without needing the political baggage that goes with EU membership.
For Ukip, however, a deplorable lack of tactical acumen has ruled out continued participation in the Single Market. Instead, Farage has tied himself and his party to an unrealistic immigration policy, which keeps him locked into an unworkable exit plan.
Fortunately, from the reaction we had to the
Flexcit seminar last Wednesday, we can take some encouragement. The idea of an incremental approach to withdrawal, and continued participation in the Single Market via the EEA, does have some traction.
Using the
Flexcit scenario, we can distance ourselves from Farage's short-sightedness. Then at least we will have a chance of undoing the damage he has done, neutralising the propaganda from the likes of Prof Salmon and Sylvie Bermann.
Additionally, there is the good sense of the voters of Thanet South, who seem set to keep Farage out of the Westminster Parliament, recognising a loser when they see one. And deprived of that platform, a failed party leader will have his ideas consigned to the dustbin where they belong.
All we have to do then is win the referendum. That's the hard bit.
