EU Referendum


EU Referendum: meetings galore


01/07/2015



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Two meetings in the stifling heat of a crowded London yesterday, both devoted to the coming "no" campaign – although the issues are very far from settled. Meanwhile, Normal Tebbit thinks it's starting to look unlikely that there will be a single organisation campaigning for a "no" vote. At present, he says, there is too wide a spectrum of opinion to make that possible. 

He could be right, although our Referendum Planning Group (RPG) is trying to make things happen, while the Exploratory Committee (ExCom) is banging heads together in the hope that agreement can be reached. But then there is Arron Banks and his "going global" group and, of course, Ukip to contend with. No one knows which way they will jump.

The only optimistic note I can muster is the thought that the "yes" campaign is probably as divided and certainly as incompetent as some of our groups. And while Mr Cameron has some good advisers, he has some very bad ones, and himself is not master of his EU brief. 

Oddly, the driving force behind this entire campaign is ignorance. In fact, it's a race to find who has the stupider arguments. One is constantly taken aback not by how much people know, but by how little. Even the basics of Article 50 are a closed book to some, yet they feel qualified to pronounce on strategy. That's without knowing the legal and technical constraints of the negotiations that must follow a successful referendum.

In that madhouse of the Westminster bubble, though, there is still that naïve belief that they are at the centre of the game. There is still no real appreciation of the democratising power of the internet, or the fact that there is a huge and increasing constituency out in those tacky little provinces, who are better informed than the centre.

We've already seen this with the media, where it is quite evident that even senior journalists do not have a grasp of the basics, while think-tank gurus make fundamental mistakes, betraying their limited grasp of the way things work. And the more they produce - the longer their tomes - the more of their ignorance they reveal.

Nor, it seems to me, is there a proper understanding of the nature of a major referendum such as this.  The contest is not a general election, but I don't think that point has really sunk in. This is not a case where political parties take centre stage. Neither is the government master of events, much less the media and their handmaidens, the pollsters. 

The essence of a referendum of this importance is that the politicians have been forced to release their already tenuous grip on the reins of power. They have handed the decision to the people. Whether they appreciate it or not, this is where the people have been given the opportunity to tell their masters what they really think. Many are beyond the reach of political manipulation, and will no longer take their guidance from the centre.

The point here is that the old aphorism of "information is power" is actually true. People used to come to the centre because that's where the information was. You had to gather together, in the coffee houses and meeting rooms, to know what is going on. But, as the flow of information has become decentralised, the centre not longer has the monopoly, and can no longer control the flow.

It is now my rooted belief that, once ordinary people realise how little their masters understand of the way we are governed, and how little control they actually have over the processes, things will change even more than they have. Power relies on illusion - it always has done. 

For the moment, the centre is still playing its games in the belief that it is in control. But they parade on a stage to which the rest of the nation is largely indifferent, where the writ of the illusion no longer runs. The centre is no longer in charge - because it is no longer master of its brief, because it can no longer control the flow of information. The only thing is, it doesn't yet realise it. 

And on this, I shall ruminate further.