EU Referendum


EU Referendum: the mess they're in


29/07/2015



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Do we need a treaty change, or don't we? Well, for the changes that Mr Cameron says he wants, the Government thinks we will need one, and one which goes beyond the Article 48 "simplified procedure".

The House of Lords Select Committee reserves judgement on whether any agreement would require treaty change, but it also accepts that it is not feasible for changes to the EU Treaties to come into force ahead of a referendum, even if it is held at the end of 2017.

But, assuming that a treaty change is necessary and Mr Cameron can't deliver in time, how does he convince the British electorate that the "colleagues" are prepared to ante up when they do have a treaty, especially as there is no way there can be any legal guarantees.

On the other hand, since Mr Cameron has promised a treaty, why would anyone be impressed with Ian Martin's "take" on what George Osborne has to offer?

Yet Martin is one of those who seems to think that Osborne can broker a deal by Christmas, ready for that referendum in June 2016. However, while ostensibly writing about "Europe", he is making the mistake common to English journalism of looking at events through the prism of domestic politics. 

Despite the historic nature of the referendum, and its vital importance to future generations, all that matters to this hack is short-term domestic politics. The important thing to him, therefore, is that Osborne can use the contest to "further his leadership ambitions", but only if he can "present whatever the deal is as a magnificent achievement and a marvellous vindication of his efforts".

But why a deal short of a treaty should be acceptable to us, because it is from the Chancellor, when the same deal from the Prime Minister would not be, is not explained. Not even the Daily Telegraph attempts that. Instead, it gives Osborne licence to claim he's achieved the political equivalent of turning water into wine – having Britain's relationship with the EU "return to the concept of a 'single market of free trade'".

Someone really should take Osborne aside and tell him that the EEC was from its very inception a political construct. Even Harold Wilson knew that. Is our current Chancellor so untutored that he doesn't realise that the Treaty of Rome had as its primary objective "ever closer union". It cannot return to being a "single market of free trade" because it never was one.

What price a newspaper, though, that interviews the Chancellor and doesn't point this out – that lets the man spout his mantra, and then treats it with a respect that it is certainly not its due, putting a nonsense pledge on the front page? Do politicians now have a free pass to mislead, without intervention or comment from the fourth estate?

Leaving that aside, in an attempt to get some sense, I suppose we could try Janan Ganesh's in the Financial Times , but he has caught the trivia disease. Again, ostensibly writing about "Europe", he is obsessing about the referendum timing and domestic politics. Mr Cameron has no reason to go for an early referendum, says Ganesh. The moment the referendum is over, it marks the beginning of the end to his career as Prime Minister. The later he leaves it, the more time he gets to pursue his agenda as prime minister, and secure his "legacy".

However, neither one of these geniuses - Martin or Ganesh – seem to have worked out the political implications of a new treaty agreed after the referendum, and the near-certainty of it triggering a second referendum, most probably in the mid-term of the next parliament.

With this, one can posit a scenario of Mr Cameron going to the country in 2020, with a "yes" vote under his belt, promising anther referendum to cement the deal. And what better reason could there be for him to stay on for another term as prime minister?

Not even Rafael Behr of the Guardian seems to have put it together – prattle seems to have infected the fourth estate and addled their brains. The "only certainty" about the deal that will be offered to the British public, intones the mighty Behr, "is that it will include compromises and imperfections – characteristics of the European project that have always been unacceptable to much of [the] right and are rapidly falling out of favour on the left".

Undecided voters, he adds, "can surely be persuaded that Britain is better off staying in the EU, but the prime minister is making that task harder by insisting that the case for 'yes' hinges on the detail of his renegotiation".

In the Behr scenario, therefore, "asking people if they like the half-baked deal that the prime minister brought home from Brussels seems, in the current climate, to be an invitation to say 'no'" – in which event Mr Cameron, we are told, "will have to pivot away from treaty changes and … make the broader case for Britain in Europe".

The assumption here is that Mr Cameron is going to bring home a "deal" from Brussels. But, most likely, all he will bring is the promise of a treaty in the near future, in which the UK will be relegated to "associate membership" status. Not a hint of that comes from Mr Behr.

For all that the concepts of a "two-speed Europe", the avant garde, the "core group" and "associate membership" are not exactly state secrets. One might, therefore, have thought that just one British journalist might break ranks and talk about what is in dozens of news sources on the continent – and available to British readers via the magic of the internet and Google translate.

Apart from Booker, though, you will have to go back to 21-22 June before you will find even a passing reference in the British media to "associate membership". Only the Guardian in recent times will allow a mention of "core Europe".

There was actually more news on the subject in the British media in 2012, when the idea was being mooted for inclusion in the next round of treaty-making. Yet, now that it is close to becoming a reality, the media are making omerta look more relaxed than the regime in Speakers' Corner.

With better than 40,000 references to Kernuuropa over the last couple of years, the near-obliteration of any reference to the English-language equivalent can't be accidental. One has to work extremely hard to cultivate a level of ignorance that manages to guard against even an accidental mention.

Rather than address this issue, we have the Express present us with Lord Hill, vice-president of the European Commission, who admits that Mr Cameron's "renegotiation" demands have "not yet" been made clear to the "colleagues". "The British government have not yet set out their clear and detailed list of their requests," he says.

The Times has Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, saying much the same thing. After a press conference with the Osborne, he declared that "we need to understand what the UK wants", reflecting - says the paper - a frustration felt across Europe at Britain's delay in spelling out its demands.

With the HoL Select Committee making a similar complaint, you might have thought that even one enterprising journalist might dig behind the headlines. If renegotiation is supposedly a central part of Mr Cameron's referendum strategy, why has there been so little effort to put the agenda in front of the "colleagues".

The most obvious explanation is that the renegotiations are no longer a central part of Mr Cameron's strategy - and that the outcome is irrelevant. That certainly could apply if the Prime Minister was not in control and was merely waiting for an announcement about a new treaty, whence we will be told that the "real" objective of the talks all along was "associate membership".

Vainly, though, do we search for any semblance of intelligent life in the media, or anything approaching coherent analysis of what is a bizarre and unexplained omission. What passes for journalism in the Express is a pathetic hack trying to sell us the idea of "Brexpulsion" – a facile "exclusive" from Prof Iain Begg (he of three million jobs fame), which has the UK at risk of being kicked out of the European Union.

Never mind that there is no provision in the treaties for the expulsion of a member state – if this is quality journalism, one can only observe that the media has plumbed new depths. But even the best is low grade. Coverage of the EU, in the round, is a total mess.

As regards referendum coverage, as the campaign gathers momentum, the public needs better and deserves better. The mess that comprises the current coverage is a disgrace, an affront to the very idea of responsible journalism. It is also a threat to what is left of our democracy.