09/08/2015
A recent
Survation Poll puts the "yes" campaign on 45 percent, leaving the "no" side trailing at 37 percent. "Undecideds" stand at 18 percent. This is backed by a more recent
ICM poll which puts the figures respectively at 46 and 36 percent, with the "don't know" score also at 18 percent.
At least in both instances, the undecided/don't know percentage is greater than the gap between the two sides, suggesting that there is at least something worth fighting for.
In the Survation poll, though, we see
a more detailed breakdown, with figures on how many voters on each side are "soft", the "yes" side delivering 12 and opposed to 14 on the "no" side. That still gives us something to fight for, even if the advantage goes to the "yes" side.
Also on offer from the poll are data on the top issues people sought in renegotiation. First in the ranking was "Ending the automatic right of all EU citizens to live and work in the UK, so that we can control the numbers and quality of immigrants coming to the UK". This scored 32 percent.
Next, but considerable down in percentage terms, was: "Restoring sovereignty to the UK Parliament so we can make our own laws", at 18 percent, and "Lowering the cost of our membership, so the money could be spent at home" got 15 percent. Then, "cutting red tape" gets ten percent while "ending the commitment to ever closer union" scores a mere five percent.
What is perhaps significant here is that even the top-rated issue takes just 32 percent â less than a third of those who gave a ranking. But the more interesting thing about the survey is not what its says, but what it doesn't. We have a contemporary "take" on an issue that stretches way back and covers territory that is not addressed by modern pollsters.
For an alternative view, it is fascinating to look back at the period immediately before 1975 referendum. Then, Eurostat carried out a
remarkable poll which asks questions that are not currently being asked. The one which might be of great significance is this: "Taking into account the great problems facing (your country) at this time, which of these three ways would you prefer to solve the problems?"
The interviewee was then presented with three formulae: national independence, inter-governmental cooperation or the political unification of Europe with election of a single Parliament evolving quickly into a true European Government.
In the Community as a whole, four people out of 10 interviewed (41%) were in favour of inter-governmental cooperation, with 3 in 10 (29%) in favour of an elected Parliament and a true European Government, while 2 in 10 (18%) opted for complete national independence.
For the UK respondents, however, in May 1975, just before the poll, we saw 33 percent go for independence, 50 percent wanting inter-governmental cooperation and a mere ten percent wanting a European government.
Come the referendum, British voters opted by a ratio of 2:1 for remaining in the Common Market. But then they thought they were getting inter-governmental cooperation. Had they been better informed, the polls say that the vote could have gone the other way.
There is a possible clue to how the current campaign should be handled. If there is to be a binary choice, it should not be presented as a direct "in" or "out". Rather, it might be better to offer voters a choice between types of cooperation â as between inter-governmental and supranational. That is the difference between co-operation and subordination.
Effectively, we need to be framing the referendum in a different way. The "in" or "out" is too stark a choice â too extreme, and not what people actually want. If we ask the right questions, listen to the answers and give them what they want, we could actually win this referendum.
