05/09/2015
On the basis of no good evidence, against the certainty that the referendum will not be held in the first part of next year (and will most likely be held in October 2017), three of the self-appointed "no" campaigns have allowed themselves to be bounced into premature launches of their campaigns.
First
out of the traps is Nigel Farage, who yesterday cemented his tactical blunder by turning the Ukip launch into a diatribe on immigration, with the case for leaving the EU scarcely mentioned.
And, carrying the penalty of his premature start, Mr Farage has even had to run with a misnamed campaign, using the slogan
Say No to the EU, even though the Electoral Commission has recommended changing from a "yes-no" contest to "remain" or "leave" â a recommendation that the Prime Minister has already accepted.
It is a fairly basic principle in referendums that the parties should campaign on the proposition that will be on the ballot paper, which means that, like it or not, we are now the "leave" option. But such is Mr Farage's keenness to get his ego out on the road, that detail has been dispensed with. Ukip will not (initially, at least) even be fighting on the actual referendum ticket.
Perhaps this is just as well, for the least we have to do with Ukip and is obsession on immigration, the better it will be for the overall campaign, notwithstanding that two of the other groups are also launching prematurely, and without yet knowing what agenda Mr Cameron will be setting.
Given that our analysis suggests that Mr Cameron will leave the ballot to the last possible minute (hence October 2017), and will be fighting on a two-referendum front, with the promise to negotiate for a new "associate membership" deal â then putting the final deal to a second referendum â the issues currently being raised by the putative "leavers" will probably not even factor in the public's choice.
What, in essence, Mr Cameron will be doing, is offering a new relationship â which was precisely what he proposed in his January 2013 Bloomberg speech â to be negotiated as part of a new EU treaty which will be on the stocks by 2022. Then there will be a ratification referendum as part of the "treaty lock", which we be used to gain public approval for the deal.
There is, of course, a possibility that this scenario will not come to pass, but there is still plenty of time to run the public phase of a campaign without yet having to launch, keeping the powder dry until we know which way Mr Cameron intends to play his hand.
On that basis, it is far better to have a short, sharp public phase, with the most intense period confined to the last ten weeks, rather than a long-drawn-out drone which will not be able to focus on the actual case over which the battle will be fought.
In order to win,
we wrote recently, we need to develop the art of winning. That requires strategy, based on what the enemy is likely to do, not on obsessing about the issues we feel to be important. Strategy, however, has never been the strong suit for a party which, despite gaining four million votes at the general election, managed to halve its parliamentary representation, from two to one.
Now, at least, Farage is being consistent, displaying his continued inability to think strategically, leading his troops into a
cul-de-sac which can only detract from the overall campaign, as he fritters away money and energy on a pointless venture.
The big question, though, is whether the other two groups will follow Farage into the
cul-de-sac and prove just as strategically inept, notwithstanding that they are already committed to the mistaken belief that the campaigning should start early.
Both these groups, respectively the "no campaign" and "TheKnow.eu", will have to undergo a rapid rebranding, or they too â as well as being premature â will also be fighting the wrong campaign. It falls to us to
make up the shortfall.
