02/10/2015
One has to permit a wry smile at the sight of the
Times editorial, which tells us that the "robust renegotiation of Britain's relationship with Europe" that David Cameron promised "has gone quiet". Says the newspaper, in response to this: "Confidence that it will ever happen is fading fast".
The temptation to yelp, "No sh*t Sherlock" is almost overpowering, as the paper is telling us something we have been reporting for
many months. But all the august
Thunderer can manage is the view that Britain's efforts to renegotiate its relationship with the EU "are beginning to look increasingly feeble".
As anticipated, the renegotiation is regarded as important but secondary to the refugee crisis and the continuing saga of Greece and the euro. Whenever Britain's renegotiation appears on the agenda of a Council meeting, the story is the same. "The British do not seem to know what they want, or if they do they are not saying". His counterparts in every member state are expecting detailed wish-lists, but there is no sign of them.
With that much lodged, however, the paper doesn't seem to have much idea of what is going on.
By coincidence, yesterday I was looking at one of the earlier articles featuring Nigel Lawson, this one in the
Guardian, in September 2011.This referred to the possibility of a new treaty, an event which, said the paper, "would present a golden opportunity for Britain".
The necessary treaty changes would have to be approved by all (then) 27 members of the EU. The prime minister had told the Tory 1922 committee before the summer recess that he would use the treaty negotiations to repatriate powers in three key areas â legal rights, criminal justice and social and employment legislation.
That was the original plan but, as we know, Merkel blocked the negotiations, leaving Mr Cameron to consider using the "simplified procedure" provisions of Article 48. But, without this ploy ever having been acknowledged, it was abandoned, leaving the Prime Minister with nowhere to go.
This left only one option, the possibility of the delayed treaty being reactivated, and the idea of "associate membership" being adopted as Mr Cameron's "big idea". Multiple signs now point to this becoming a reality.
But this is something that the
Times has not picked up. It seems to have no real idea of what is going on. It does admit, however, that the renegotiation team at No 10 "has floated the idea of deferred EU treaty changes to be presented to voters as IOUs".
And although there is every indication that this idea will fly, the paper thinks it has "gained little traction in Brussels", where negotiators are said to have been told "the only concessions that could be post-dated in this way would be opt-outs rather than full treaty changes".
That leaves the paper with little understanding of the way things are developing, ending up with the peroration that "Britain needs a real renegotiation based on a coherent vision of what the country needs, not what Europe is willing to grant".
This is such total wishful thinking that it betrays a complete departure from reality for the editorial writer, who then concludes that, "If Mr Cameron is not ready to present one next week at his party conference, there can be little confidence that it exists".
But, of course, it doesn't exist â it can't exist, and there will be nothing specific that Mr Cameron can offer at the conference, where there is no mention of the EU on the
official agenda.
It is only recently though that the
Sunday Telegraph was confidently predicting that the Prime Minister would come under immense pressure from backbenchers "to show a more ambitious menu of proposed reforms than has so far been disclosed", preparatory to an early referendum.
The only point of interest, though, will be the precise nature of the "fudge" that Mr Cameron will have to perpetrate, whence we will see the meeting of the European Council on 15 October, for the next non-event on the path to associate membership.
Ironically, the
Times talks of a well-organised "out" campaign masterminded by Dominic Cummings, but the only thing that seems to be organised is the rush to fritter away resources in anticipation of an early referendum that simply isn't going to happen.
Nevertheless, the
Times collecting together the strands of its profound ignorance, believes we are "sleepwalking to Brexit". An equally (if not more tenable) scenario, though., is that Mr Cameron is letting the "leave" campaigners wear themselves out, preparatory to making his move in late 2017.
This timescale is beyond the capability of any British national newspaper to comprehend, so all we're going to see is the parade of the
ignorati, as they struggle (and fail) to understand what is going on.
Meanwhile, in response to the well-organised "out" campaign masterminded by Dominic Cummings, and its
coup in appointing Lord Lawson as
Conservatives for Britain president, Arron Banks
dismissed the group as "run by the Westminster bubble". "It would be better", he said, "if the Eurosceptic Tories just 'shut-up' as they are going to alienate the vast majority of people who will look at this campaign as a Tory stitch-up".
Sticking in the knife, he then added: "If the Tories keep using has-beens like Lord Lawson and the other Eurosceptic rabble then that will turn off supporters". For Mr Cameron, things seem to be going swimmingly.
