06/10/2015
I've lost track of when we first put our views on the timing of the referendum but we've been pretty consistent since the beginning of this year that it would be late in 2017 â despite
idle speculation to the contrary.
Both Matthew Elliott and Nigel Farage have been convinced that there would be an early referendum, on the basis of no evidence at all. They've even ignored the Prime Minister himself, who
has made it clear that a "better choice" would be to hold a vote by the end of 2017 after having had a chance to convince other allies to reform the EU and give the UK more freedoms.
But, what comes round goes round. Despite the certainty of these great "experts", we now get the
Independent telling us that "David Cameron may delay the referendum ⦠until 2017 in order to give himself more time to win concessions from other EU leaders".
Although September 2016 was "until recently seen as the most likely date" â but only by the pundits and media - one of Cameron's ministers is saying: "We may have to play it long. It would be better to wait if that means getting a bigger and better package of reforms".
That, in fact, was how it was always going to be. So, we're exactly back where we started â and where we would be if people stopped to look at the evidence, rather than indulging in their own fantasies. As it stands, we have all the campaign groups going off half-cock, at the risk of running out of steam (and money) and driving the public away as the campaign drags.
This, though, is a measure of the competence of the main players. And if they can't even get their act together on this issue â which has a massive impact on the conduct and pace of the campaign - then one can have little confidence in their management of the campaign generally.
In short, they're behaving like amateurs - mainly because that's exactly what they are. They have little ability to plan an effective campaign because they're failing correctly to interpret the intelligence. They may think themselves "experts", but when it comes to EU politics, they're out of their depth.
Sadly, there is no natural limit to the number of mistakes they can make.
