13/10/2015
Now that Ukip and both of the main "leave" groups have been lured into the trap of early launches, and In Campaign Ltd have set up their BSE "mad cow" distraction unit to keep them occupied - while giving the media something to play with - the government can afford to be more candid about the timing of the referendum.
Thus we have David Lidington, as reported in the
Guardian, telling us that there is a "nine month window" for the poll, starting in the summer of next year. A poll during the UK presidency, Lidington says, is "not the optimum solution", although he does not rule it out.
In fact, a period earlier in 2017 is not plausible, as there are both German and French elections. Lidington's claim has to be taken with a punch of salt. It has the smell of the government setting up its alibi, for being "forced" into holding a later referendum.
However, one thing is absolutely certain. We are not going to see a "snap referendum" in the spring of next year. That was never going to happen, yet it should not be forgotten that both Mr Farage and, separately, the current "Vote Leave Ltd" campaign (prop. Messrs Cummings & Elliott), were convinced there would be an early poll.
Therefore, when we hear opinionated spokespersons for Ukip and for Vote Leave Ltd, telling us about fighting the referendum, we should bear in mind their track record. We should also note that theyhave both launched their campaigns prematurely, on the basis of their flawed assessments.
Strategically, we should still be preparing for a referendum in October 2017 - while being ready to handle one in the spring of that year. But, amateurs aside, overall, planning should be geared to the long haul - as has long been recognised by those who had the acumen and experience to work it out.
