Strategy ten: the politics of expectation

13/11/2015

The teenage scribblers have spoken and the narrative is locked in. Those who disagree, and suggest that Mr Cameron has played a bad hand well, are told condescendingly that we "don't understand politics".

This, of course, is the SW1 view – expressed by people looking through the filter of Westminster politics. Politics belong to them, and should be left to that self-selecting band of "brilliant political strategists and campaigners". Us mere plebs should know our place in the order of things.

The reality, though, is that such people have little comprehension of the political interface between the EU and the UK. They have only the haziest idea of how the EU works and have little grasp of its history. Inevitably. get it wrong when they try their hand at analysis. That Westminster "filter" excludes the Brussels input, and nothing is of any significance until they can plant a flag on it, and squeeze it onto the adversarial mould of British politics.

This is the mistake Mr Cameron himself made back in January 2013 when he delivered the Bloomberg speech. "At some stage in the next few years", he said:

… the EU will need to agree on Treaty change to make the changes needed for the long term future of the Euro and to entrench the diverse, competitive, democratically accountable Europe that we seek. I believe the best way to do this will be in a new Treaty so I add my voice to those who are already calling for this. My strong preference is to enact these changes for the entire EU, not just for Britain.

Cameron, in the manner of Margaret Thatcher, had thought he could "handbag" his way into the new treaty negotiations, forcing the "colleagues" to agree to his demands, in exchange for his agreement to the new treaty. But, from the very start, that plan ran into trouble. There was actually no treaty in the offing.

What he hadn't appreciated, but could have ascertained if he had been better plugged in, is that Merkel in September 2012 had already decided to "pull" the treaty, putting it on the back burner to allow for a broad and "open" debate on Europe.

By the end of the year, though, help was at hand – even if Mr Cameron wasn't to know it at the time. As The Times reported, a group of senior politicians in Brussels was to propose "second-class" EU status for Britain, in what was called "a dramatic shift in thinking by the strongest supporters of a united Europe".

They were, said The Times, to suggest that the UK should become an "associate member", a "new category of membership" that would give Britain the option of staying attached to the EU "to prevent it quitting altogether" if, as some had then expected, the Prime Minister's renegotiation failed to satisfy voters or Eurosceptic Conservative MPs.

This made its formal appearance in October 2013, as the "Fundamental Law", which incorporated the proposals for an "associate membership", specifically as a solution to the "British problem".

Such an option, though, would need treaty change, the process for which could not be completed before the end of 2017, giving Mr Cameron a serious problem. He had committed to himself to negotiating a new treaty and, even in January 2015 was telling Andrew Marr that he was committed to a "proper, full-on treaty change" before the end of 2017.

Technically, there was only one way this could happen and that was by limiting the scope of the treaty changes and invoking the "simplified procedure" in Article 48 of the Treaties. And even in May 2015 this still looked possible.

Very quickly though, this option began to look less and less credible, not least because clear signals were now coming from Berlin, Paris and Brussels, that treaty change was back on the cards.

This presented a lifeline for Mr Cameron and, on 21 June 2015, the Sunday Times revealed that he was looking seriously at the "associate member" option which could be included in the new treaty.

But, to disguise what might otherwise be seen as "second-class membership", Mr Cameron was to see EU membership "rebranded" to convince voters he had redrawn the country's relationship with Brussels. Titles such as "market membership", "trading membership" and "executive membership" were being considered, although nothing firm had been decided.

Now we come to the events of Tuesday when tucked into his speech to Chatham House, Mr Cameron declared that we need "a British model of membership that works for Britain and for any other non-Euro members", calling this "a matter of cardinal importance for the United Kingdom".

Missed by every journalist present, and the entire press corps subsequently, Mr Cameron had reactivated "associate membership". But now the rebranding has been revealed. The name on the pack is to be the "British model".

What had not been realised, though, was that the Chatham House speech amounted to the formal launch of the Prime Minister's referendum campaign, and that it had been subject to elaborate preparation.

Setting the scene had started with Mr Cameron's visit to Iceland, where he went out of his way to attack the "Norway Model". Next was George Osborne's speech in Berlin on safeguarding non-eurozone members – laying down the need for a separate "two tier" Europe.

With Monday's CBI speech, and then the Chatham House speech, the pieces fell into place. He used these speeches and the Iceland visit to establish the extremes at both edges of the argument, the Eurosceptics with their "Norway Model" and the Europhiles who wanted to "stay in" Europe at any price.

Now, "Mr Reasonable" has created space for the centre ground and is now occupying it. His message is carefully calculated to appeal to the "moderate middle" who will decide the outcome of the referendum.

Tuesday, then, was "day zero".  Before that day, nothing exists. The slate has been wiped clean, ready for a re-birth. With two years to run before the ballot, this is a necessary cleansing. Relying on short public (and media) memories are, Mr Cameron is ditching all his previous "commitments". He can afford to let the media squeal, pointing out the poverty of his ambition.