EU Referendum


EU Referendum: a non-event in Brussels


17/12/2015




Despite the torrent of media attention in the UK, according a routine European Council meeting in Brussels with the status of a major international summit, it is beginning to look as if the meeting is going to be a non-event – at least as far as Mr Cameron's "renegotiations" go.

Search the European press, and particularly the German websites, and you will struggle to find references to the meeting. And in one tangential report, it is interesting to see that Angela Merkel is getting quite favourable treatment.

Therefore, when we see the Independent a report that the "colleagues" have other things to occupy them at the meeting, it looks quite probable that there will be nothing very much for Mr Cameron to bring home.

Clues as to what will actually be going on come from the letter of invitation from the European Council President, Donald Tusk. He puts the lead item as the "debate on migration" and only during dinner will the Council "discuss the UK issue".

The BBC has it that this "is the first time EU leaders will discuss the PM's reforms in detail". Yet "detail" is hardly an accurate description. Mr Cameron, effectively, takes on the role of the after-dinner speaker.

In his earlier letter to Mr Cameron on 7 December, Tusk was writing that, based on a substantive political discussion during the Council, "we should be able to prepare a concrete proposal to be finally adopted in February". But now the Council President seems to be rowing back, stating only that the purpose of the discussion is, "to see if we can pave the way for an agreement in February".

This is a much weaker statement, with Tusk then referring to his letter of the 7 December, reminding members that, "we have achieved significant progress in negotiations". However, he says, "we are still far from an agreement on several topics".

Thus we learn that this Thursday, Council members "will need to focus" especially on the most controversial topics (note the plural), with that admonition that: "the stakes are so high that we cannot escape a serious debate with no taboos".

Readers will observe that there is no reference to adopting a conclusion from this "serious debate". Bearing in mind that the communiqué has most likely already been written, if there was going to be one, then there might have been some hint of it in the Tusk letter.

Instead, Mr Tusk tells us that the Council members "will resume our European Council on Friday morning with an in-depth discussion on the follow-up to the Five Presidents' report on Economic and Monetary Union". That, in itself, is another clue. If there was an intention to reach an agreement on the "renegotiations", the discussion would be left open-ended, so it could run into extra time if needed.

But it is also significant that the Council is planning an "in-depth discussion on the follow-up to the Five Presidents' report on Economic and Monetary Union". That report, with the Commission President's state of the union report, sets the timetable for treaty change – which is highly relevant to Mr Cameron's concerns.

What we see in this is note of urgency, with the Council President saying: "There is no time for complacency in reforming the Eurozone. We need to further strengthen the Banking Union and improve economic governance". With that, he adds that the President of the ECB "will join us for this debate". This is serious stuff.

Then, to conclude the Council meeting, the members will be adopting conclusions. but these are on the Internal Market and on Energy and Climate change. Afterwards, they will discuss the fight against terrorism, whence the emphasis will be placed on better information-sharing. They will finish by adopting conclusions on Syria, and dealing with a proposal to roll over sanctions on Russia for another six months.

Since treaty change is on the agenda, albeit in a disguised form, one wonders is there will be discussions on the margin of the Council on an initiative between Britain and Italy, reported in the Telegraph earlier this week, when the two countries agreed "on the need for a deep reform of the EU, simplifying its functioning, its procedures and its rules".

In a piece written by Philip Hammond and Paolo Gentiloni, the respective foreign ministers, we saw the view expressed that, "Italy and the UK both believe we can work together on an EU reform package that deals with specific issues such as the role of national parliaments, competitiveness, economic governance and welfare, in order to make the EU simpler, more efficient and less bureaucratic". 

But, "to make the most of this opportunity" one issue needed to be "clarified". The Italian government, we were told, "believes that eurozone member states are entitled to go ahead with greater integration, also as a way of regaining their growth potential and reconstituting the political credibility of Europe".

"This path", it said, "can be undertaken in a way that recognises that there is more than one currency in use in the EU at present - and for the foreseeable future - and has full regard to the rights and interests of non-euro member states, in particular safeguarding the integrity of the single market, which is a shared asset of the whole EU".

A stronger eurozone governance to ensure a successful euro in the long term, would be "in all our interests", but Italy and the UK believed that "the way to reconcile different visions of the EU among the member states" was to "embrace a new model of its functioning, based on the flexibility to manage greater or lesser integration". This was an approach, they said, that – de facto – had already been put in practice since the creation of the euro.

Looking at this in the round, this is a very clear joint statement approving the concept of a two-tier Europe, with a eurozone core and an outer ring, which may one day be transformed into the "British model".

Both Hammond and Gentiloni noted that the possibility of differing levels of EU integration had long been debated, and reminded us that, in its June 2014 meeting, the European Council agreed that: "the concept of ever closer union allows for different paths of integration for different countries, allowing those that want to deepen integration to move ahead, while respecting the wish of those who do not wish to deepen any further".

Those weasel words are never going to fly, but there is a recognition that, with more than 30 member states, countries will be able to "find a place and a suitable degree of integration within the EU, according to the will of their citizens".

With Germany and France agreeing in principle to a two-tier Europe, or a Kern Europa, the addition of Italy now makes half of the original Six accepting what amounts to a fundamental reform of the structure of the EU, and the largest three to boot.

That paves the way for a wider agreement which will doubtless form part of the substance of Friday's in-depth discussion on economic and monetary union. Is so doing, it will address two of Mr Cameron's core concerns, the protection of non-euro countries and the issue of "ever closer union".

Despite this, there is a long, hard battle before agreement will be reached on this, with a comment from Charles Grant cited, to the effect that the UK still faces "stiff opposition from the more federalist-minded countries and the European Commission", whose President, Jean-Claude Juncker, is a constant champion of "more Europe".

"Some EU countries", says Grant, "are wedded to the old thinking – that all must embrace the euro and ever closer union – and they won't welcome this initiative".

Juncker's opposition was said to be evident is a speech he gave to the European Parliament on Tuesday, when he told MEPs that he was addressing "the Parliament of the euro". Vote Leave Ltd interpreted that (wrongly, in my view) as a sign that Juncker was pouring "cold water on David Cameron's demand for the EU to be a 'multi-currency union'". But, Juncker actually went on to say that it being "the Parliament of the euro" was why he had wanted President Schulz to contribute to the Five Presidents' Report.

There we are full circle, as this is to be discussed on Friday, whence it is perfectly possible for the European Parliament to be the Parliament of the euro, with non-euro MEPs excluded from voting on EMU issues related solely to the eurozone.

As to where that leaves Mr Cameron on "welfare benefits", over which the media have been obsessing, is difficult to tell. The Independent thinks that the Prime Minister has a marginally better chance of securing a deal. There is, it says, support across the EU for the principle that national governments should control who has access to welfare, and changes could probably be introduced with a majority vote in favour.

Any such reform, though, would only be a symbolic step that would not save much money. It would not address the fears of working-class Britons that migrants to Britain are "taking their jobs".

On that basis, the paper argues that the Council meeting "has the look of a public relations exercise". When the EU referendum is held, it says, "it will be accompanied by a ferocious political argument during which, it can be safely predicted, whatever deal Mr Cameron manages to bring back from Brussels will barely feature at all".

On the other hand, the message we are getting from the Guardian is that Mr Cameron's existing proposal will remain the starting point for the talks. A No.10 spokesman has said: "The prime minister has made clear the proposal that is on the table as regards the welfare and migration element of the renegotiation is the four years and we will be discussing that tomorrow in Brussels in the EU council".

To this, the spokesman adds: " The prime minister will set out our proposals. If other EU leaders want to come forward with alternative proposals or suggestions, that will form part of that discussion. But let’s wait until that discussion starts to then see what comes out of it".

That, of course, does not stop the Telegraph running its usual "deep trouble" meme, while the Mail is prattling about a June referendum, "if PM can get concessions on curbing migration". But there won't be any concessions. There won't even be a decision - just discussions. 

As it stands, therefore, it looks as if the media may be walking away empty-handed, without even a biff-bam row to play with. But behind the scenes, progress will have been made, with the long game very much on the stocks. The referendum remains on track for late autumn 2017.