EU Referendum


EU Referendum: unity not on the agenda


31/03/2016




I've been writing for some time now that, when it comes to the British media, truth and accuracy are theoretical concepts with no practical application. If it suits them, any one of the printed or broadcast titles will lie – by omission as much as anything. Inaccuracies which distort their reports are grist to the mill.

And today being the last day on which contenders can submit applications to the Electoral Commission for lead designation, respectively for the "leave" and "remain" campaigns, nothing changes. But then one might ask, why would the media want to change when they have been peddling their lies for so many decades? With their own agendas to push, now is the very last time we might expect a sudden Damascene conversion.

So it is that the Telegraph on its usual mendacious form parades a headline which escapes being an outright lie by being a quotation from the Prime Minister who is turning lying into an art form, exceeded in intensity and frequency only by Alexander (aka Boris) Johnson.

Strictly, from a Jesuitical perspective, the lie comes in the willingness to repeat another's lie without pointing out that that is what it is. And in this case, we are dealing with Mr Cameron's claim that the only thing than unites eurosceptics is their inability' to spell out vision for Brexit. That vision does exist, in the form of Flexcit, circulated online, with over 50,000 copies having been downloaded.

What is true is that the two organisations that going forward with applications for designation as lead for the "leave" campaign, have been unable to produce their own visions, much less agree between each other as to what it should be.

One of the bidders is the "GO" movement, ostensibly led by Nigel Farage, which takes in Ukip and Arron Banks's Leave.eu. The other is Vote Leave Ltd, a company with strong Conservative Party links, which emerged from the Business for Britain grouping launched by Matthew Elliott. Its leaders include Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart, but it also claims the support of Alexander (aka Boris) Johnson.

An overview of their respective websites confirms the lack of coherence and the singular lack of detail. "In fact", says David Cameron, "the only common ground is their inability to tell the British people what would happen if we left the EU. They have failed to answer reasonable questions about what would happen to jobs, prices or our country's security if Britain left the EU".

That neither grouping is able to offer a credible (or any) vision or an accompanying exit plan is a reflection of the deep differences between prominent individuals within the eurosceptic "movement", driven as it is by powerful egos which have ensured continuous rivalry over the decades, resulting in an absolute refusal to work together.

Thus, within the two groups submitting applications, there are deep, irresolvable rifts. The only way campaign managers have been able to contain them has been to promote an agreement to disagree, a moral cowardice and lack of resolve which the Prime Minister and the "remain" campaign have been quick to exploit.

Predictably, attempts to bring the two groups together have failed. They could never have succeeded anyway because of the internal rifts. Activists and supporters calling for unity have thus been frustrated. The rifts are simply too deep and long-standing for them to be cleared away, and there is no willingness amongst individuals, the so-called "eurosceptic aristocracy", to allow this to happen.

In another important respect, though, the Prime Minister has got it wrong. The two groups are united not only in their "inability" to come up with their own plans but also in their absolute refusal to entertain Flexcit. This seeks to accommodate the different demands of eurosceptic, while squaring the circle by keeping in touch with reality. Its only success in respect of the two groups applying for designation is to secure the enmity of both.

However, the lack of a coherent, universally accepted plan is – as we saw yesterday - already having a damaging effect on the "leave" campaign. But the superficial and fragile unity within the groups is far more important to their managers than the formation of any effective strategy. That would require a firm commitment to a single plan, which would tear the groups apart.

The result has been plain for all to see – a fractious, incoherent campaign, fought on a day-to-day tactical level without any underlying strategy. The battle, such that it is, comprises mainly of bickering with the "remains" over every-more arcane and tendentious issues, frequently driven off course by the short-term news agenda.

Come 14 April, when the Electoral Commission is obliged to publish its decision, we will perforce have one winner and one loser in the "leave" camp. The loser will be restricted to a spend of £700,000 while the winner will be able to spend £7 million. It will also receive a cash grant of £600,000 plus certain other benefits, including the right to air referendum broadcasts and send the official referendum address, on behalf of the "leave" proposition, to all UK households.

In the final analysis, though, the outcome of the designation process has ceased to have any relevance. Both groups are as bad as each other, with only marginal differences which will have little impact on the conduct of the campaign. In the absence of a coherent intellectual base, the contest will become increasingly personalised, centred either on Nigel Farage or, more likely, becoming the "Boris and Dave" show.

That leaves the independent groupings, such as The Leave Alliance, to do the heavy lifting without grant support or any media recognition, and without the big bucks and corporate donors.

To their advantage is the revolutionary tool of the internet, the full potential of which has yet to be realised and fully exploited. But, to a huge degree, this also makes the designation process irrelevant. As the Scottish referendum demonstrated, the official groupings no longer have a near-monopoly of access to the voting public, and the power of the media is substantially diminished.

Nevertheless, the fractious – and fractured – nature of the "leave" campaign creates an unnecessary and unwanted handicap in a contest which is going to be hard enough to win, even with everyone pulling together.

But, with absolutely no sign of the main groups getting their acts together, that is the reality on the ground. Unity is not a realistic prospect, and there is going to be no coalescence around a single vision or exit plan. Individually and collectively, the main players have decided that winning is not a priority. That is how it is going to be.