10/08/2016
The good news is, according to the
Guardian, senior Norwegian government members are to hold talks with David Davis in the next few weeks. They have agreed to find a mutually convenient meeting date to discuss matters as soon as possible.That would suggest, at the very least, that the Government is considering the possibility of the Efta/EEA option.
The bad news is â according to the same source â that Norway could block the UK if it tries to rejoin the Efta. But then, that was always possible and is simply a statement of fact, despite the attempt of the
Independent to turn it into a scary headline. But if the worst happens, that's why we have a multi-layer fallback in
Flexcit. Not being able to rejoin Efta would be a setback, but not a disaster.
Interestingly, the
Guardian's own source is the Norwegian newspaper,
Aftenposten. It tells us that the British Government is not alone. The Norwegians too have established a special group to consider the effects of Brexit, but specifically for Norway.
And, although the
Guardian. as one might expect, indulges in the negative prospects, the purpose of this "special group" is to advise its Government on whether Norway should accept the UK into Efta. This is not a done deal by any means. It could go either way.
The Minister responsible for the group is EEA minister Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, working from the Foreign Ministry. So far, she says, there have been no signals of interest from the UK about joining the EEA.
What Aspaker does say, though, is not particularly encouraging. Referring to the prospects of opt-outs from the EU's free movement provisions, she is dismissive, stating that it cannot be allowed. On that basis, she thinks, the EEA Agreement is unsuitable for the British, "if one is to judge by the referendum campaign".
Nevertheless, she is not ruling out UK membership, saying that "time will tell" what the British themselves decide. So far, she says, "we do not know what it is the British wish".
However, she cannot guarantee that the Norwegian government response to the UK will be positive. To allow such a large country to join Efta could change the balance of the organisation. This will not necessarily be in Norway's interests.
Aspaker also confirms that to join Efta required unanimous agreement of all its four member states, with Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland each having a veto.
The
Guardian is keen to tell us that, by opposing a UK return to Efta, Norway would in effect block our chances of staying in the Single Market via the EEA, but there is a long way to go before we see anything conclusive.
If push comes to shove, and the EU itself decides that the way forward is for the UK to be accommodated in an EEA-type agreement, and found Efta members intransigent, it could even collapse the EEA Agreement (which it could do by asking all the 28 EU members to withdraw from it). Then it could re-establish an identical treaty and invite all Efta members and the UK to join.
In other words, there are plenty of possibilities beyond the limited vision of the
Guardian. And even then, there is a distinct advantage to Norway in having the UK on board, as it strengthens its hand when it comes to renegotiating the EEA Agreement â a long-term objective of the Norwegian Left.
Thus we see Audun Lysbakken, leader of Norway's Socialist Left party arguing that the EEA agreement should be renegotiated, with the UK's help, saying countries "outside [the EU] need a better model for cooperation with the EU than the current EEA agreement".
He adds he is "amazed" that his government does not want to have an open debate about a new relationship with the EU, saying: "Throughout the spring, the government has been adamant that the EEA is not a good model and it is not something they would recommend to the British. Now they suddenly want to leave it as it is".
This adds an extra dimension to a situation which has the potential to make three-dimensional chess look like a game of draughts. Yet another player is
Svein Roald Hansen, head of the Norwegian Parliament's Delegation to EFTA and the EEA Parliamentary Committee.
He is making encouraging noises about agreements between Norway and the UK, following Brexit. But the really interesting thing is that the Norwegian Efta Parliamentary Committee has already met to discuss the outcome of the UK referendum. This was on 27 June in Bern, and members invited a think tank from Geneva to provide insight into the possible consequences of Brexit for the EU and Efta.
Moreover, Efta's four national Ministers have talked about the situation in their twice-yearly forum, held in conjunction with Efta's ministerial meetings, and there is more to come.
Thus, there is plenty of activity and much to resolve. The
negative headlines (not just those from the
Guardian) are not an accurate reflection of the situation, which will remain fluid until a final decision has been made, one way or the other.
Specifically, the negativity on the trade-off between free movement and participation in the Single Market is not warranted. The
Liechtenstein/EEA solution remains an option, built into the EEA Agreement. There is everything to play for.
