03/10/2017
Such is the frenetic pace of the news cycle that an item published at the beginning of the day has very often by evening lost its immediacy. Unless reinforced by new developments, it will often disappear into obscurity.
Nevertheless, reports convey information and, if relevant, the information retains its potency which, added to the rest, helps us understand something of that corner of the world we are looking at.
One such report appeared in the
Mail yesterday but, before we go there we must recall
another report a few days ago which had the Leave Means Leave group stating in a letter: "If the EU is not seriously negotiating a free trade deal by Christmas 2017, the Government should give formal notice that we will move to World Trade Organisation rules in March 2019".
Now we get this
Mail report popping up telling us something which, if true, is nothing short of a miracle. "Brexit trade talks", we learn from the headline, "WILL starts (sic) by Christmas". Theresa May, it is said, "believes her speech in Florence has led to a breakthrough with Brussels".
As we know, The European Council is due to decide later this month whether "sufficient progress" has been made on the Brexit "Phase One". And despite all the indications that there has been insufficient progress, "EU leaders" appear to have indicated directly to Mrs May that talks on the "future relationship" could start by end of year.
This "miracle" must have happened at Tallinn last Friday where, according to an unnamed "senior Tory source", the Prime minister had been "pleased with the reaction to her [Florence] speech". And when asked if the PM thought that trade talks would begin by Christmas, the source said "yes".
His upbeat tone, we are told (is if we hadn't guessed) "contrasts with the verdict of European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker", who warned last week it would take a "miracle" to move to trade talks in the coming months.
Despite this â and indeed despite M. Barnier's observations at the end of the fourth round of the talks, ministers believe significant progress has been made. Sources said a deal on guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens is "close" and EU leaders have welcomed Mrs May's confirmation in Florence that the UK will pay into the Brussels budget during a two-year "implementation period".
And, while progress has been slower on Northern Ireland, ministers believe they are winning the argument that it is impossible to agree arrangements at the Irish border until both sides know the details of customs arrangements that will be finalised in trade talks.
Such is the narrative that we are supposed to believe, repeated in the
Sun where the story seems to be a direct copy-out of the
Mail story, adding nothing new.
We then see the same assertions in the online edition of the
Express bolstered by a comment from Legatum favourite, Steve Baker, who also works as a minister in MinBrex.
He says he's "hopeful" that EU negotiators would agree to move on to discuss future relationships soon, having told a fringe meeting at the Conservative Party conference: "I am very hopeful that everyone will see the mutual advantage of moving on to a discussion of the future relationship in October".
So far, we do not seem to have had any corroboration of this original source, and no other newspapers have repeated the claims. The
Standard, on the other hand, has a senior minister saying that hopes of kickstarting trade talks with Europe this month have faded. The belief is that the October European Council will rule that too little progress has been made on the so-called "divorce" issues.
That does rather leaves the
Mail story hanging. But one wonders if this is No. 10 "flying a kite", to test opinion prior to Mrs May's speech on Wednesday. Could it be that, despite its implausible nature, the Prime Minister is to tell the faithful that her Florence speech actually worked, and the talks are back on track? Is this her secret weapon to bring the "Ultras" into line and to silence the Foreign Minister?
Whether or not this is the intention, Mrs May's advisers should be looking closely at the meetings calendars of the General Affairs Council (GAC) and the European Council. Assuming that European Council the agree to allow the talks to progress to Phase Two at their October meeting, the negotiating mandate for the next phase must be prepared and approved, and these two bodies are involved.
If we then go by
the procedure adopted for the first phase, draft guidelines for the new mandate must be issued to the 27 leaders of the EU Member States. These must then be discussed by the GAC, with the first possible dates available on either 15 or 20 November.
That then clears the way for the European Council to approve the mandate, but its first possible meeting is not until 14-15 December. And although we haven't been given meeting dates for the Brexit negotiations, I very much doubt whether M. Barnier and his team will want to be attending a further round of talks that close to Christmas.
The chances are, therefore, that the earliest round of trade-related talks could not be undertaken until January, at the very earliest. And that assumes the European Council is prepared to give the go-ahead in October.
If that slot is missed, then things start to look very interesting indeed. The Brexit negotiating teams will presumably have time to squeeze in two further sessions â one in November and one in early December - before the European Council meets again, whence it could again be asked to give the go-ahead to proceed to Phase Two.
However, the earliest opportunity that the European Council would have to agree the new mandate would be at its spring meeting â the first of the year â held on 22-23 March. That would move the first round of trade talks to April 2018 â over a year since Article 50 was invoked.
There is a possibility, of course, that the European Council could convene a special meeting, but there is nothing that requires it to do so. And to drag all the 27 leaders to a winter meeting would not be popular. Weather conditions might even make one difficult.
All of this makes it even less likely that a trade agreement will be concluded by 29 March 2019, when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. But that is largely academic, as this was never on the cards. But it does leave the time perilously short to agree a transitional arrangement, to buy time for the trade negotiations.
That also assumes that there will be agreement on Phase One which, with the
latest development, looks even less likely.
In a bid to come over at the "iron lady" of conference, it appears that Mrs May could be going much further than the
Mail story indicates. She may be looking to make the payment of EU contributions during her two-year so-called "implementation period" conditional on the conclusion of a trade deal. This impossible demand â on top of a refusal to look at other liabilities â would effectively torpedo any chance of reaching a Phase One agreement.
Should this be the May strategy to pull the conference behind her, then we are almost certainly looking at a "no deal" Brexit. Such an ultimatum might enable the Prime Minister to strengthen her grip on office, albeit temporarily, but it would be at the cost of jeopardising the entire Brexit process.
With that, there will be some merit in the "remainers" float touring Manchester during the conference (pictured). Brexit will have become a monstrosity, set to destroy our economy and our global political standing. The only up-side is that it will almost certainly take the Conservative Party with it. and even that will be poor compensation for what we might be about to endure.
