Assuming that the UK is able swiftly to negotiate an air service agreement with the EU, that is only the start of it. The UK will, by then, be a third country. This means that Regulation (EC) 1008/2008 will no longer apply. Instead, UK airlines will have to conform with
Commission Regulation (EU) No 453/2014.
This, as Willie Walsh will undoubtedly know, lays down "technical requirements and administrative procedures related to air operations of third country operators pursuant to
Regulation (EC) No 216/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council".
This requires them to apply to the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in order to gain approval as Third Country Operators (TCOs), in accordance with the procedure
sketched out here.
And, in accordance with the six-page
application guidelines, the intended operator must "demonstrate a credible intention to conduct commercial operations into within or out of the territory subject to the provisions of the Treaty of the European Union".
Of this, Mr Walsh will no doubt be fully aware, as he will most probably have to substantiate his airline's intention by submitting its planned schedule for commercial air transport operations or by making a statement that operations to the European Union are planned.
Given the complexity of the application procedure, one very much suspects that neither British Airways nor any other UK licenced airline will be seeing its TCO approval in the small hours of Saturday 30 March 2019, or even in the days thereafter.
The complication here is that the application must be submitted at least 30 days before the intended starting date of operation – but it cannot be made until the UK has left the EU and become a third country. And once he's sorted that out, there is the small matter of lodging proof of insurance in accordance with
Regulation (EC) No 785/2004.
There would also seem to be some slight complications for foreign aircraft. The EU (EASA) has in the past dealt with foreign airlines and issued their TCO approvals, permitting them to operate in the territory of EU Member States (and the Efta States).
But once the UK leaves the EU, these airlines will no longer have authority to operate in the UK. Thus, the British authorities (presumably the CAA) will have to set up its own approval programme, and invite all the foreign carriers (including EU/Efta carriers) to apply.
No doubt these minor details can be attended to quite swiftly, once the CAA has recruited and trained the extra staff. That is unless, of course – as Mr Walsh would prefer – the UK government is able to negotiate continued membership of EASA. That, needless to say, won't happen if we walk away from the negotiating table.
However, in broaching the issue of the UK's continued membership of an EU executive agency, Mr Walsh is potentially opening a rather large can of worms – as to how much the UK will be paying towards the Agency's annual €140 million budget. This too will have to be negotiated.
And one does hope that if any UK operator re-registers itself as a European operator, it will make sure that its pilots
are still qualified, as holders of British-issued licences will not be permitted to fly their aircraft.
Such issues will undoubtedly emerge in due course, but not – it would seem – in the forthcoming transport committee report. Although it might have helped if the MPs had invited evidence from the UK regulator – the CAA – from the Department of International Trade which will have to negotiate the air service agreements, and even from aviation law specialists, it appears that this is the one and only evidence session.
But as long as the MPs imbibe the Kool Aid from Willie Walsh and his friends, they will be able to tell us that we have nothing to worry about. And, given the prestige of these witnesses, how could the MPs possibly be wrong?