Brexit: in the dark

05/05/2018

These are supposed to be local elections but, as far as the London media is concerned, this is "the first test of public opinion since last year's snap election".

That, of course, tells us a great deal about what is wrong with the political process. People should be electing their local representatives, on local issues, but there is not a lot of point as the essential elements of local government are dictated by Whitehall anyway. So the elections just become a rather inadequate proxy for the national game.

Meanwhile, Brexit - the thing that the national media should be following intensely - goes largely by default. Most of the journos don't understand the deeper issues and too many of them are so obsessed with their "customs" meme that they have lost the plot.

Everything is being seen through the prism of a mythical "customs union", placed front and centre in virtually every report. The obsession is polluting the information environment with an endless stream of unreadable dribble, contrasting unrealistic options offered by opposing sets of politicians who have in common only their profound ignorance of the way border controls work.

Small wonder that most journalists are more interested in the "biff-bam" of personality politics. It keeps them in their respective comfort zones and saves them the embarrassment of having to report on matters about which they know so little, leaving the bulk of the population to switch off and turn to more rewarding things.

One thing perhaps of interest, in the grander scheme of things, is the collapse of the Ukip vote. That, in itself, is an indictment of the baleful leadership of Farage, leaving the party unable to function at precisely the time it is sorely needed.

Had Ukip come away from the referendum with a credible plan for Brexit and the determination to keep the political classes focused, the situation might not be so very different but at least we would have had something to work with. As it is, the Brexit cause now lacks effective political leadership and the general secretary has likened his party to the black death.

As to the results overall, we are told that if they were applied at parliamentary level, the Conservatives would lose their ability to govern with the DUP, their only viable Brexit allies. If there is anything to take from that, we can conclude that Mrs May isn't quite as secure as some would like to believe.

Despite that, though, we have a report that foreign minister Johnson is claiming that the council elections were a victory for "his form" of Brexit, because the Conservatives had been successful in areas that backed "leave" in the referendum, something the Mail is playing big, calling for a "real" Brexit on its front page.

We are now told that "Brexiteers" (whatever they might be) plan to use the result to try to push Theresa May to support their plans, amid divisions among her cabinet over which path to take on a customs union".

However, when it comes to the main event, these elections are just another distraction – another few days taken out of the countdown where the attention is elsewhere. It wouldn't matter so much if the media were able to deal with more than one issue of consequence at a time, but the political hacks are mostly single issue people.

One small exception yesterday was an "exclusive" in the Guardian which acquaints us with a "leaked paper" drawn up by senior officials in the Northern Ireland executive.

This offers a potential way out for Number 10, with a "backup plan" to avoid hard land border with Ireland, suggesting what amounts to a "wet border" but with a light-touch regime that incorporates "green channels" which enable compliant traders to pass freely, avoiding any check or constraint on movement.

However, since regulatory divergence is not ruled out, it is "recognised" that keeping the border open on the island of Ireland will allow goods not compliant with EU or UK trade policy to move freely around the two jurisdictions.

What is worrying about this - from the perspective of the report - is that officials are arguing that "the same risk is tolerated to some degree in other contexts (e.g., between Switzerland and its EU neighbours)". It is thus held that "the commitment to support the all-island economy suggests that some degree of risk can be accepted".

This seems to betray a worrying lack of understanding of the Swiss system, which has a very high degree of regulatory alignment and a strong network of over 100 manned customs posts covering its 1000-plus mile border with its five neighbours.

Moreover, goods destined for Switzerland from outside the EU/EEA are checked at the EU's external borders, or at the customs posts serving Switzerland's international airports, and are permitted free circulation only on the grounds that apply to the Union as a whole. There is no possibility that Switzerland could become a back door into the Union in the way that an unguarded Irish border could easily become.

Typically of UK national newspapers, though, the Guardian conveys its story without critical appraisal but, from the look of it, this leaked report has nothing going it that could break the logjam. Yet, even this sounds promising compared with Mrs May's latest wheeze - having her government examining the operation of the US-Canadian border as a possible answer to the Irish question, with Dr Fox telling the BBC that it was "frictionless".

With such idiocy, that means that we are no further forward than we were last week, which puts us no further forward than we were when the negotiations started. And that's where, according to a story buried deep in The Times, Brexit is about to come crashing in on us.

Ireland, it appears, has secured the support of other EU leaders to the extent that, should Mrs May fail to come up with an acceptable solution by next month's European Council, they are prepared to block the next phase of discussions with the UK, on future trade relations, effectively collapsing the talks.

Far from there being a meeting of minds, however, it seems that the UK does not recognise the June European Council as a deadline. Yet, for all that, it is hard to see why this is even news. As recently as 29 April, Michel Barnier wrote an authored piece in the Irish Independent reaffirming - as he has done so many time – that there will be no Brexit deal unless Ireland is satisfied with the border settlement. The UK caused the problem in Ireland and the UK must solve it, he wrote.

And that problem isn't going to go away. The Irish Times makes that perfectly clear with its latest report telling us of: "Increasing pessimism in Dublin over prospects for Brexit talks".