05/11/2020
In one of those "no shit Sherlock!" moments, Simon Byrne. chief constable of the PSNI,
is warning that the Irish border could be exploited by criminals as "the soft underbelly of the Common Travel Area" when the Brexit transition period ends.
Byrne was talking to the MPs on the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, conveying the amazing information that there is a danger the border will be used to smuggle drugs, guns and people. This is so startling and unexpected that we must count ourselves fortunate that we have people such as Byrne to keep us informed.
He also warns us that it may take up to a year to bring suspects back to Northern Ireland from EU member states post-Brexit, after the UK loses access to European arrest warrants. Currently the European arrest warrant process takes 48 days on average. So far this year, 45 warrants have been sought by the PSNI.
Byrne refers to possible delays in sharing information with other European security services, and, in a nice turn of phrase, compares reversion to post-Brexit systems to moving from using wireless broadband to dial-up modem.
Currently, there are 80 organised crime gangs operating in Northern Ireland (known to PSNI), with 16 of those having a "footprint" on both sides of the border, so things are going be interesting once we're back to the steam age.
But Byrne isn't the only one with worries. Director General Steve Rodhouse of the National Crime Agency is concerned about being able to share intelligence with EU police forces as quickly as they do now. Being able to respond quickly by sharing information is key in the battle against organised criminals, he says.
"I do remain concerned that it will not be as swift," he adds, but he says that as the negotiations are continuing it would be premature to draw any conclusions. However, it is not only his Agency which is "on hold". Criminals are also adopting a "wait and see" approach to figure out how they might be able to alter their routes into the UK to continue their criminal activity.
Needless to say, there is no clarity coming out of the system, so criminals and police alike will have to wait a little longer before they finalise their respective plans, tiresome though it is.
The latest information is that
negotiators have been toiling away in Brussels without reaching any conclusions.
In another of those amazing revelations, we are told that there are still "wide divergences" on "core issues" of the Brexit trade negotiations, even after two weeks of intensive talks.
"We continue to work to find solutions that fully respect UK sovereignty", says David Frost on the UK side. While EU diplomats warn that a no-deal TransEnd is still a serious risk. They accuse British negotiators of failing to "engage sufficiently" on the three most divisive issues.
To everybody's surprise (not), these are fishing, the level playing field guarantees and the enforcement/governance. And, despite claims to the contrary, and over-excited
media reports, there has been no "cave-in" on fishing.
Barnier and his coterie of EU diplomats now seem to be of the view that the UK is attempting to "run down the clock" in the hope that this will force last-minute concessions from Brussels. But "Putting time pressure on the EU is unlikely to work. There is not much time left for brinkmanship", says a senior diplomatic source.
The talks are to continue, with the negotiators resuming in London on Sunday. There was talk of them ending early so that Johnson could "seal the deal" with our Ursula, in a publicity spectacular, but we haven't heard any more of that idea.
But Barnier has asked MEPs for "flexibility" in the European Parliament timetable to ratify the deal, to buy as much time as possible to do the deal. This looks as if the deadline could be stretched again, although there must eventually be some limit to the number of times it can be extended.
What we do seem to be firming up on, though, is that the UK is going for a zero-tariff and zero quota trade deal, with some judicial and police cooperation (which will please Byrne, if not the Irish crooks), but very little more.
Nothing, therefore, is going to save the Northern Irish authorities from having
to invest in a major extension to the inspection facility in Larne to convert it into a full-blown Border Control Post (BCP) to deal with food and live animals when they arrive from other parts of the UK when the transition period ends an Northern Ireland stays in the single market for goods, unlike the rest of the UK.
This, of course, is something that the DUP rejected, Mrs May said no prime minister would ever accept, and Johnson denied was happening. Yet here we are, confounding all the politicians with a permanent inspection facility which is tangible proof that NI is to be treated separately from the rest of the UK.
Moreover, BCPs are also be built at Belfast and Warrenpoint ports, although construction work is yet to get underway. Neither they nor the facility at Larne will be ready for 1 January when, theoretically, they should be in operation. Thus, the hard-pressed Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Daera) is working on (as yet unspecified) contingency plans.
This is yet more evidence of the shambolic approach this administration is taking to the TransEnd preparations, and leaving the conclusion of the negotiations to the last minute certainly isn't helping.
And yet, there is another twist to this ongoing saga that might turn the entire edifice on its head. Yesterday, while the world was focused on the US presidential election,
we heard that Johnson had missed the EU deadline to explain breach of international law over the Internal Market Bill.
At the start of October the European Commission sent a letter of formal notice to the UK over the prime minister's planned Bill, which even the UK government admits breaches the Withdrawal Agreement signed earlier this year.
The Commission has confirmed that the deadline to respond to the letter has now come and gone without a UK response, which means that the court action against the UK will move to the next phase.
But the almost contemptuous stance of the UK government must surely have other consequences. If Johnson's administration is prepared to run rough-shod through the Withdrawal Agreement and then ignore the agreed dispute procedures, then the EU would doubtless have cause to wonder whether the UK can be trusted to hold up its end of any trade deal.
To an extent, the writing is already on the wall. Brussels has already said that the dispute has to be resolved if Britain expects to conclude a trade agreement, and this does not suggest that there is a meeting of minds.
Then there is the European Parliament which, if it chooses to use it, has the ultimate veto on whether any trade deal is ratified. So far, the EP has not exercised its power, but the UK is pushing its luck if it thinks it can ignore any likelihood of action.
Already, there is a hint of steel in the EU's response with a spokesperson saying that the EU is "fully committed to achieving full, timely, and effective implementation of the withdrawal agreement within the remaining time available", adding that the "dispute will have to be resolved".
One might think that the UK is playing with fire, but then one wonders whether Johnson really cares. This simply adds to what
Barnier claims is the "dangerous game of brinkmanship" that Britain is playing.
Also published on
Turbulent Times.
